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Stellar 10Y Auction Stops Through Amid Surge In Direct Bidders

After yesterday's ugly, tailing 3Y auction, which saw record Directs as foreign buyers tumbled, moments ago the Treasury sold $39BN in 10Y notes in a closely watched auction. In the end, the auction went through without a glitch, with solid buyside demand which was foreshadowed by today's sharp bid across the curve.

The auction priced at a high yield of 4.362%, down from 4.421% last month and in a narrow range since February's outlier 4.623%. The auction also stopped through the 4.365% When Issued by 0.3bps, this was the 5th consecutive tail in a row, although the smallest of the bunch.

stellar 10y auction stops through amid surge in direct bidders

The bid to cover was 2.61, up from 2.52 in June and the highest since April; it was also above the six-auction average of 2.56

The internals were less impressive, with Indirects awarded 65.4%, down from 70.6% last month, and the lowest since January. And while they were far from a record, Directs rose to 23.7% (after plunging to just 1.4% during the April market mayhem), the highest going back all the way to March 2014.

stellar 10y auction stops through amid surge in direct bidders

That left Dealers with just 10.9%, up from 9.0% in June but one of the lowest on record.

stellar 10y auction stops through amid surge in direct bidders

Overall, this was a very solid auction, one that left yesterday's poor, tailing 3Y in the dust, and not a moment too soon: with long-end yields blowing out across the world the the 30Y about to break the 5% redline, buyers had to step in or the equity selloff would have come back with a vengeance. 

via July 9th 2025