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Vol-Selling Remains Relentless - Nomura Sees Massive 'Stop-In' Meltup Before 'Risk Events' In July

"Higher, then lower..." is the key message from Nomura MD Charlie McElligott.

There’s simply not enough 'Net'-leverage / Beta-'on' and returns have under-captured the rally for most (my common refrain that "Nobody owned the Right-Tail" certainly playing-out into the V-shaped recovery back towards all-time highs), while gradual disinflation (which means a Fed tilting incrementally more dovish with this curious July-talk) against still solid 5-6% nominal GDP (aggregate consumption holds the line for Corporate Earnings) keep the bullish tailwinds intact, all while continuing to avoid "hard-landing" red flags (although with mounting “yellow flags”) in U.S. Economic Growth data...

vol selling remains relentless nomura sees massive stop in meltup before risk events in july

via June 25th 2025