The Fed's favorite inflation indicator - Core PCE - fell once again in April to its lowest since April 2021 at +2.5% YoY...
Source: Bloomberg
Services inflation is slowing rapidly...
Source: Bloomberg
Headline PCE fell to +2.1%...
Source: Bloomberg
The downturn was triggered by a large deflationary impulse in non-durable goods...
SuperCore PCE also tumbled to four year lows with its first MoM decline since April 2020...
Source: Bloomberg
SuperCore PCE was driven down by a big drop in Financial Services & Insurance costs...
Source: Bloomberg
Finally, for all the terror of tariffs in the soft survey data, spending continues to increase and incomes are growing strongly...
Source: Bloomberg
...it's gonna be hard for Powell to justify the 'pause' now.
