The US Court of International Trade has ordered the Trump administration to suspend tariffs imposed under IEEPA authority. How this ruling is ultimately settled remains to be seen - according to both Goldman and the White House it will have little impact - but either way there is plenty of executive authority for a tariff agenda to be enacted via other tools.
Which is why what Deutsche Bank's policy team are most focused on is not this court ruling - which inevitably could delay trade negotiations even more – but something else: Section 899 of the "Big Beautiful Bill" that is currently making its way through the US Senate.
There remains a lot of uncertainty on the exact applicability of this new legislation, but overall our interpretation is that if it is voted through, it effectively introduces the most wide-ranging adverse changes to the tax treatment on foreign capital in the US since the Deficit Reduction Act of 1984 and the Foreign Investors Tax Act of 1966.
