While tomorrow's CPI will be far less relevant now that the entire macro picture has been reset after this weekend's trade war truce, which cut tariffs between US and China by 115% for 90 days, thus making any pre/post CPI number comparisons meaningless apples to oranges, the machines will certainly be reacting to what BBG prints in the flashing red headline tomorrow at 8:30am ET, if only for a few minutes before reverting to following Trump's all-caps missives on Truth Social.
With that in mind, here's what Wall Street expects:
- Headline CPI for April up 0.3% MoM, up from a -0.1% drop a month ago.
- Core CPI for April up 0.3% MoM, also up from the modest 0.1% increase in March, although the range of estimates is surprisingly wide, from 0.6% on the high end (from Dick Chlench at Landesbank BW) to 0.0% on the low-end (from Jason Schenker of Prestige Economics).
