After a 25% peak-to-trough NDX drawdown in Feb-April, we kick-off the second half of 2025 with the NDX on a 6-day winnings streak, and more importantly having recovered all of its recent losses and then some, up a stunning 37% from the low tick less than three months ago, and now solidly in overbought territory (14-day RSI of ~73 = highest since July’24).
In his look back (and look ahead) note published this morning titled "Halftime" (available to pro subscribers), Goldman's head TMT specialist Peter Callahan, writes that on one hand, it feels a bit like June/July of 2024 – the most recent blow-off-the-top moment – with AI bulls firmly back in the driver seat (e.g. most days we’ve walked in over the last few weeks, you almost ‘expected’ to see an AI name like AMD up ~2-3% in the premarket)
