Ahead of Tuesday's Consumer Price Index (CPI) print—which could determine whether rate traders price in a September cut—new data from one of the most comprehensive gauges of digital inflation shows deflation in June, with no indication that tariffs are filtering through just yet. That's a far cry from the inflation apocalypse narrative pushed by leftist corporate media and Michigan sentiment surveys.
The Adobe Digital Price Index—an Adobe Analytics–powered inflation gauge that tracks online prices, similar to the CPI but focused on digital commerce—printed at -2.09% year-over-year in June. Categories such as apparel (-7.68%), electronics (-2.66% YoY), and groceries (-2.04% YoY) all experienced deflation.
Looking at subcategories within electronics, computer prices fell 10.73% YoY in June. Given that much of the global computer supply chain is based in China, one might have expected prices to surge amid the ongoing U.S.-China trade war—but that hasn't materialized (yet).
Meanwhile, the UMich survey of deranged Democrats...
UMich marxists will not be happy: "evidence suggests that the tariff effects look a bit smaller than we expected, other disinflationary forces have been stronger, and we suspect that the Fed leadership shares our view that tariffs will only have a one-time price level effect"-GS
— zerohedge (@zerohedge) July 2, 2025
Looking ahead, Goldman analyst Giulio Esposito expects tomorrow's CPI print around .23% month-over-month increase in June core CPI, vs consensus at +.3%, corresponding to a YoY rate of 2.93% (vs 3.% cons).
"Going forward, the team does expect tariffs to provide a somewhat larger boost to monthly inflation, expecting monthly core CPI between 0.3% and 0.4% over the next few months," Esposito noted.
Back to the Adobe data—either demand for electronics is sliding, or vendors are cutting their margins to absorb tariffs. Remember what we said earlier this month about Toyotas and Nissans (read here)...
