Russia Planning Invasion of NATO Within Five Years Warns Zelensky

Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky once again sounds the warning of a Russian invasion of Europe beyond his own borders as NATO nations meet in The Hague for a major summit on the future of the alliance.

The NATO Defence Industry Forum was addressed by President Zelensky on Tuesday afternoon, the Ukrainian leader claiming “Russia is even planning new military operations on NATO territory, meaning your countries” and that “his objectives reach beyond Ukraine”.

The claims build on earlier statements by Zelensky, including one before he left Kyiv where he related his director of military intelligence had said he had evidence of a Russian plot to strike “the territory of Europe”, and in another case an interview with a British broadcaster. Speaking to Sky News in London before he flew to The Netherlands for the NATO meeting, Zelensky responded “precisely, I believe so” in response to being asked whether Russia was planning to attack a European NATO member.

Reflecting on the main intended outcome of the NATO meeting — a boost in defence spending by member states — President Zelensky said moving from two to five per cent over the next decade would be too little too late compared to what he said Russia was intending to so. He said: “very slow, in my view it is slow. Because we believe that starting from 2030 Putin can have significantly greater capabilities. Today Ukraine is holding him up, he has no time to train the army and they are all getting annihilated and wiped out in the battlefield… [in] ten years is a very long time, he’ll have a new army ready by then.”

“NATO needs Ukrainians”, he said, while expressing his regret “it isn’t possible right now” for his country to join the alliance. Nevertheless, Zelensky asserted: “I believe there are European leaders who truly understand that it is in their interest for Ukraine to endure. Ukraine’s defence is Europe’s defence… it is a reduction of risk to European countries”.

While the motive for Russia launching a land war against NATO when it is already struggling to meet its war goals in Ukraine is never made clear beyond President Putin himself being consumed by a lust for war or imperial ambition, NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte gave his perspective on Tuesday on the circumstances he foresaw for such a strike. Speaking to press as the alliance’s summit got underway Rutte hypothesised a situation where Moscow kowtowed to Beijing to spring a distraction on NATO’s European members to split attention away from a Chinese strike on Taiwan.

Rutte said:

…we have this close relationship now with Japan and Republic of Korea, Australia and New Zealand, exactly for the reason that these countries are very, very worried about the massive military build-up China, at the moment is taking place… this massive build-up is taking place and is having a huge impact, also when it comes to the defence industrial production of China. And of course, they don’t do this only because they want to have nice parades in Beijing. I guess it’s there for a reason.

And we are all very worried, of course, about the situation in Taiwan. And we also know that there is a risk that if the Chinese will try anything with Taiwan, that no doubt he will call his junior partner, Mr Putin, and make sure that the junior partner in that relationship with China, Mr Putin, will keep us busy here, if that would happen. That is one of the reasons why we have to stand ready, and we cannot be naïve. We have to be clear on this, and that is why that extra defence spending is so important. That is why NATO does not have as an Alliance opt-out, side deals, etc, because we all have to chip in.

From President Zelensky’s perspective, such distractions do appear to work. He made clear in 2023 that the October 7 attacks against Israel had massively diverted attention away from support for Ukraine, and Kyiv even claimed it had been forced to scale back military operations as foreign donations of arms dwindled. Now global focus is on the Middle East again as President Zelensky bangs the drum with repeated assertions of Russian battle plans for NATO Europe.

While he expressed his approval of the United States and Israel striking Iran, not least because Iran is a major exporter of wepaons including of drones to Russia that are used to strike Ukrainian cities — he called the recent attacks “a powerful, correct move” — he expressed regret that Iran was taking the limelight. Zelensky said in the Locarno Suite at Britain’s Foreign and Commonwealth Office: “it is a big problem, yes, the political focus is changing. And that is absolutely understandable, and this means different partners, above all, the United States, may be reduced. And we won’t want that, but we do feel it, we understand it.”

Russia was using the “opportunity” of America’s focus shifting to the Middle East to increase strikes against Ukraine unnoticed, Zelensky said.