Russia is Making New Plans to Attack Europe, Warns Zelensky Ahead of NATO Summit

Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky will tell this week’s NATO summit that Russia is “preparing new military operations on the territory of Europe”, a warning that comes as the gaze of the world again shifts from Eastern Europe to the Middle East.

The head of Ukraine’s Main Directorate of Intelligence of the Ministry of Defence (GUR) has briefed President Volodymyr Zelensky that Russia is preparing a military strike on Europe, the President revealed on the eve of his trip to Western Europe. Zelensky arrived in London on Monday morning by Presidential plane where he is to meet with senior British figures and Ukrainian soldiers being trained by the British military ahead of attending the NATO summit in the Netherlands on Tuesday as a guest.

In a statement published on Sunday evening, Zelensky gave an update on the latest briefing he’d received from his spy chief Kyrylo Budanov who told him that Ukrainian intelligence had discovered “the aggressor state’s key vulnerabilities”, enabling future strikes, that Russia is suffering “intellectual decline”, and that the Western sanctions regime is causing “tangible damage” to the Russian economy. This, Zelensky said, proves that sanctions are working and should be intensified.

But more novel, perhaps, is Zelensky’s assertion that Ukrainian intelligence has evidence of a Russian plan to attack the rest of Europe. He said in his statement: “[we] have evidence that they are preparing new military operations on the territory of Europe… We will inform partners about the facts that our intelligence has obtained. We are preparing joint defence solutions together, in particular with Britain and the European Union. Thank you to everyone in the world who helps us protect lives.”

Zelensky’s warning of a potential wider war in Europe comes as the attention of the world shifts from his defence against Moscow to the Israel-Iran war. Indeed, fighting in the Middle East has previously been cited as a source of pain for Zelensky and the Ukrainian government which relies on donations of cash and weapons to remain afloat.

This phenomenon was observed after the October 7 attacks in 2023, a year in which new pledges of military and financial support to Ukraine was thought to have fallen 90 per cent and Kyiv was forced to scale back operations for want of equipment. A month after the attack on Israel, Zelensky told the British: “the world is not focused on this situation or on our battlefield in Ukraine. Dividing focus really doesn’t help… we understand the help of the world can be divided because the crisis in the Middle East and it’s a pity”.

Nevertheless, Zelensky is not the only European figure talking up such an attack. Admiral Rob Bauer, until earlier this year the military head of the NATO alliance and who is promoting a new book, weighed the possible outcomes from a theoretical Russian probing strike on alliance territory in an interview with a major German newspaper today. He told Die Welt that while Russia is already engaging in constant “hybrid warfare” type attacks against Europe like “Assassinations, arson, cyberattacks”, for an actual small scale military assault on something like a small border village he said:

“[with an attack on a village in Estonia] Then Article 4 comes into play, and the member states discuss what to do. The question is, for example, can we catch and punish the perpetrators of these attacks? Should Russia actually invade Estonia, the alliance clause in Article 5 applies. If it’s a relatively small attack and Estonia’s overall territorial integrity isn’t threatened, there’s time for consultations. We have to weigh up whether we want to start a war or not.”

Per NATO, article 4 of the founding treaty allows all member states to bring potential breaches of “territorial integrity, political independence or security” to the Atlantic Council for consultation for a consensus decision. Article 5 is the principle of collective defence, committing its members to protect each other and that “an armed attack against one or more of them in Europe or North America shall be considered an attack against them all”.

While Bauer had been prompted on the hypothetical Russian strike on a European city question, he also moved to play down broader concerns, expressing his view that Russia’s apparent obession with NATO is mostly rhetorical and not borne out in revealed preferences. He said, for instance: “We certainly know that Putin doesn’t see NATO as an immediate threat. When Finland became a new member, he didn’t deploy a single soldier to the border with Russia, even though it’s 1,340 kilometres [830 miles] long. The good news is that Russia’s nuclear threats so far have been largely rhetoric. The Chinese have also made it clear to Russia that they reject the use of nuclear weapons.”

President Zelensky arrived in London on Monday morning for a pre-NATO summit trip. Per Ukraine state media, on his agenda are meetings with King Charles III, the UK Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer, and Parliamentary leaders. Zelensky is also expected to meet with troops going through the British military’s considerable training programme for Ukrainian soldiers.

Tomorrow, Zelensky will travel to The Hague in the Netherlands for a major NATO summit. As the leader of a non-member state invited as a guest, Zelensky will not be able to attend the central meetings but will meet with other leaders while there. As reported, NATO members have agreed to announce a new major increase in defence spending across the bloc at the summit, vowing to invest a minimum five per cent of GDP each, a major leap from the two per cent floor that has been the NATO standard for the past 11 years.