Crude prices are down modestly this morning despite ongoing attacks between Iran and Israel and API reporting a major crude draw overnight as President Trump said Iran has reached out and wants to negotiate.
When asked about possible Iran strikes, Trump said: “I may do it. I may not do it. Nobody knows what I’m going to do.”
Meantime, Trump also said he told Israel Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to “keep going.”
So geopolitical risk premia are far from over.
Additionally, Russian flows rose only very marginally in the last four weeks, limiting downward price pressures.
API
Crude -10.133mm (-600k exp)
Cushing -800k
Gasoline -202k
Distillates +318k
DOE
Crude -11.47mm (-600k exp, -2.8mm Whisper) - biggest build since June 2024
Cushing -995k
Gasoline +209k
Distillates +514k
The offoicial data confirmed API's with a huge crude drawdown (the biggest since June 2024). We also saw a third straight week of product builds...
Source: Bloomberg
Despite the plungng rig count, US crude production remains near record highs (for now)...
Source: Bloomberg
WTI tumbled ahead of the official data on Trump's comments on Iran seeking peace.. bounced very briefly on the huge crude draw...
Source: Bloomberg
...but the main driver for prices right now continues to be the potential for Israel-Iran war escalations.
