The Ukraine War Heats Up
The Ukraine War has been heating up recently, as the Russians with Attitude account noted a few days ago.
There are no flashy news but the fighting in recent weeks has indeed been extremely heavy - the war is hotter currently than it has been for many months. https://t.co/w29yKA7hwJ
— Russians With Attitude (@RWApodcast) July 15, 2023
In light of the heavy losses they've been taking during their counteroffensive, which has resulted in the destruction of significant amounts of NATO-donated equipment,
In the first two weeks of Ukraine’s counteroffensive, as much as 20% of the weaponry it sent to the battlefield was damaged or destroyed, officials said. That includes some Western fighting machines the Ukrainians counted on to beat back the Russians. https://t.co/9NpBRrXMjy
— The New York Times (@nytimes) July 15, 2023
The Ukrainians have apparently decided to strike Russia's Crimean bridge again. Recall that the Russian government considers Crimea to be an intrinsic part of Russia, as it is majority Russian; has been part of Russia since 1783, except for a 60-year period from 1954 to 2014; and includes Sevastopol, the home port of Russia's Black Sea Fleet. So any attacks on Crimea carry the risk of escalation. Given that, Trump's talk about peace on Sunday was welcome, even if his proposal was a bit uneven.
Trump's 24-Hour Peace Plan
In an interview with Maria Bartiromo on Fox Business on Sunday, President Trump offered his outline of how he'd negotiate an end to the war in Ukraine.
Trump’s plan to end the Ukraine War. pic.twitter.com/Ry8dzaNNNA
— Portfolio Armor (@PortfolioArmor) July 17, 2023
Basically, Trump says he would threaten to cut off military aid to Zelensky if he didn't make a deal with Putin, and he would threaten to increase military aid to Zelensky if Putin didn't make a deal with Zelensky.
In the past, Trump has been cagey about how he would actually end the war, and that was probably for the best, as DeSantis supporters promptly jumped on the second part of what Trump said above, falsely accusing Trump of being no different than neocon hawks like Lindsey Graham.
What Trump Gets Right
What Trump gets right is that our massive aid to the Ukrainians gives us enormous leverage over Zelensky. Without continuing U.S. aid, they can't keep fighting, so telling Zelensky his allowance is about to get cut off would be an excellent way to get him to the negotiating table.
What Trump Gets Wrong
What Trump gets wrong is that the way to get Putin to the negotiating table is with carrots, not sticks. We're running out of sticks. Our own Defense bureaucrats now admit that none of the weapons we've given the Ukrainians are a game-changer,
John Kirchhofer of the US Defense Intelligence Agency says the Ukraine war is "at a bit of a stalemate."
— Aaron Maté (@aaronjmate) July 15, 2023
As for NATO's heavy weapons: "None of these, unfortunately, are the holy grail that Ukraine is looking for that I think will allow them in the near-term to break through." pic.twitter.com/fkUjpVy6Oo
And Russia's economy has weathered our harshest sanctions against it.
Who would have bet that after almost a year and a half of unprecedented Western economic sanctions and a proxy war against it backed by the richest military alliance on earth Russia would have lower inflation than the U.S. pic.twitter.com/KES5tJsLN6
— David Pinsen (@dpinsen) July 8, 2023
Our leverage with Putin at this point would be offering to remove those sanctions, and releasing the hundreds of billions of dollars of Russian assets we've frozen, in return for a peace deal.
What A Peace Deal Could Look Like
The outlines of a possible peace deal aren't that complicated:
- Russia gets to keep Crimea and other Eastern areas where the population is mostly Russian ethnically. To save face, Ukraine could agree to adhere to the results of new, internationally supervised referenda in these oblasts.
- Russia gets assurances that no NATO forces or weapons will be stationed in Ukraine, and Ukraine will be politically neutral.
- Russia gets sanctions on it dropped and its frozen assets released.
- Ukraine gets compensated by Russia for the land it gives up. There are precedents for this, such as America's payment to Mexico as part of the Treaty of Guadalupe.
- Ukraine gets security guarantees.
- Ukraine gets aid to help with reconstruction and compensation for its wounded and dead.
The key thing needed is a U.S. President who actually wants peace, and of the candidates running, Trump is the one who wants peace.
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