Trafalgar Group Founder Robert Cahaly: Trump on 'Upswing,' Supporters Cannot Wait to Vote
The polling company that predicted Donald Trump would win Michigan in 2016 told The Kyle Olson Show he will do the same in 2020, based on recent polling.
Trafalgar Group founder Robert Cahaly told The Kyle Olson Show his company recently showed Joe Biden winning Michigan by one point.
“I could look in those undecideds, and those third-party and tell you I believe those people will vote for Trump,” he said. “We had him down by one, but I believe Trump will win Michigan as of the last poll we did.”
Cahaly said there has been a “wave pattern” in recent polling trending for Trump, then away, and now towards him again.
He said as the virus went on Trump slid, then George Floyd was killed and Trump slid further.
But then the riots occurred, statues were torn down, and leftists called for defunding the police. Trump’s standing began to improve, especially after his strong pro-America July 4th event.
“That was the first time I would have told you he could have broken 300 electoral votes,” Cahaly said.
He said that was why the media shifted its focus from the protests and back to coronavirus.
Cahaly said the polling has done a “down, up, down, and now it’s back trending in a positive way for Trump,” and that he’s on an “upswing.”
Cahaly said it is difficult to poll recent elections because the “social desirability bias” is real, that is, an interviewee wanting a pollster to like the answer they are giving. He said many Americans don’t have time for a long series of questions, and so many of the polling companies’ methods are flawed.
“We’ve seen a disproportionate amount of Republicans unwilling to participate in polls and you have to really work hard to get a Republican to answer,” he said.
He said many Republicans likely to answer are “Romney-type” GOPers. That is, opposed to Trump, hidden Trump voters who claim they are for someone else. Or that Republicans are being undersampled. At that point, a company will “weigh” a smaller size, which he said is already incorrect, to fit the outcome it is seeking and “expand the error.”
“They have no incentive to fix it,” he said. “Polling is not a meritocracy.”
“If you’re working for a party or a campaign or for a media outlet, they care more about are you reinforcing their narrative of the election than did you get it right,” he said.
“You have to look at the incentive of the people doing the poll. What is their real goal,” he added.
Cahaly said the “enthusiasm gap” between Trump and Biden voters is real.
He said Trump voters “cannot wait — that voting booth is where they are going to vent this frustration” with riots, cancel culture, statues being torn down, and attacking people for their beliefs.
Cahaly said they will vote regardless of where Trump stands in the polls.
Many Biden supporters, meanwhile, are “anti-Trump,” not necessarily pro-Biden, and if they see Biden beating Trump handily in polls, they will be less motivated to vote because they think Biden is already going to win.
Cahaly referred to himself as “Paul Revere for the Biden campaign.”
“They are in a fight and they don’t understand it” because most polling companies undersample Republicans.
Cahaly speculated the pro-Biden polls are working against him because it may suppress turnout for Biden in November.
Kyle Olson is a reporter for Breitbart News. He is also host of “The Kyle Olson Show,” syndicated on Michigan radio stations on weekends. Listen to segments on YouTube or download full episodes at iHeartRADIO.Follow him on Twitter, like him on Facebook, and follow him on Parler.