Amazon hasn't set a public date for fully replacing warehouse workers with robots, but all indicators suggest a gradual transition is well underway, with significant workforce reductions likely, alongside productivity gains driven by automation and AI through the 2030s.
The Wall Street Journal reported that Amazon, the nation's second-largest private employer in the U.S., is quickly approaching a new milestone in warehouse automation: "There will soon be as many robots as humans." This equates to over a million robots.
Roughly 75% of Amazon's deliveries are now assisted by robotic systems, which perform tasks such as picking, sorting, packaging, and moving items. The rapid integration of robots, such as the advanced Vulcan, marks a significant step toward full automation for fulfillment centers.
"They're one step closer to that realization of the full integration of robotics," said Rueben Scriven, research manager at Interact Analysis, a robotics consulting firm.
The onboarding of automation has slowed Amazon's hiring. The average number of employees per facility has dropped to a 16-year low, and Amazon plans to reduce its total workforce in the coming years.
Meanwhile, the number of packages that Amazon ships per employee has soared from 175 in 2015 to approximately 3,870 in recent months, indicating that automation has significantly supercharged the company's productivity gains.
Amazon Chief Executive Andy Jassy said recently that AI will be integrated at fulfillment centers "to improve inventory placement, demand forecasting, and the efficiency of our robots."
"We will need fewer people doing some of the jobs that are being done today, and more people doing other types of jobs," Jassy said in a memo to employees last month. "It's hard to know exactly where this nets out over time, but in the next few years, we expect that this will reduce our total corporate workforce."
All signs suggest Amazon has reached its employment peak.
To all the Amazon workers pushing to unionize—remember, the robots are coming for your jobs. This trend is accelerating and will persist through the 2030s. For a clearer picture of how many jobs AI will displace, see this 2023 Goldman report.
