US equities were mixed today as investors digest:
(1) another benign inflation report (Core CPI cooler than expected);
(2) favorable semis trade news between China and the US (NVDA to sell H20s to Beijing); and
(3) the kick-off of big bank earnings season, which for the most part failed to clear a high bar.
Rate-cut odds tumbled as Goldman notes that there was some evidence of tariff impulses as traditional import goods categories like household furnishings, recreation commodities, apparel, and auto parts all rose on the month. And their economists actually raised our forecast for PCE inflation by 4bp to 0.29% mom. But CPI inflation, at least for now, remains below 3%...
