Saturday, September 26, 2020

NY Times Poll: Trump in Statistical Tie with Biden in New Hampshire and Nevada

President Trump is statistically tied with Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden in the battleground states of New Hampshire and Nevada, and has narrowed the former vice president’s lead in Wisconsin, according to the New York Times-Siena College poll released on Saturday.

Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton narrowly won New Hampshire’s four electoral college votes and Nevada’s six electoral college votes in 2016, while President Trump narrowly won Wisconsin’s ten electoral college votes in that election.

In New Hampshire, Biden leads Trump by three points, 45 percent to 42 percent, which is a statistical tie, given that the poll of 445 likely voters conducted between September 8 and September 11 has a 5.5 percent margin of error. Libertarian presidential candidate Jo Jorgensen received the support of four percent of poll respondents.

In Nevada, Biden leads Trump by four points, 46 percent to 42 percent, which is a statistical tie, given that the poll of 462 likely voters conducted between September 8 and 10 has a 5.3 percent margin of error. Libertarian presidential candidate Jo Jorgensen received the support of three percent of poll respondents.

In Wisconsin, Biden leads Trump by five points, 48 percent to 43 percent, which is barely beyond the 4.7 percent margin of error for the poll of 760 likely voters conducted between September 8 and September 10.

In addition to the key battleground states of New Hampshire, Nevada, and Wisconsin, the New York Times-Siena College released poll results for Minnesota, another key battleground state, where Biden leads Trump by nine points, 50 percent to 41 percent, which is well beyond the 3.9 percent margin of error for the poll of 814 likely voters conducted between September 8 and September 10.

Hillary Clinton narrowly won Minnesota’s ten electoral college votes in 2016 by a margin of 44,000 votes. Recent polls have indicated President Trump has a chance of winning Minnesota in 2020.

When asked the most important issue in this presidential election, and given the choice between “addressing law and order” or “addressing the coronavirus pandemic,” voters in Nevada emphatically selected law and order over coronavirus by a 52 percent to 39 percent margin, while voters in the other three polled states were evenly divided: 47 percent coronavirus to 48 percent law and order in Minnesota, 46 percent coronavirus to 45 percent law and order in Wisconsin, and 44 percent coronavirus to 45 percent law and order in New Hampshire.

Attitudes towards Black Lives Matter were very similar across all states, as was a significant gender disparity in those attitudes within each state. In all four states, men were equally divided as to whether they had a favorable or unfavorable impression of the Black Lives Matter movement, while women had either a two-to-one or close to two-to-one favorable impression of the Black Lives Matter movement in all states.

In Minnesota, 53 percent of poll respondents said they had a favorable impression of the Black Lives Matter movement, while 40 percent said they had an unfavorable impression. Among men, 44 percent had a favorable impression, while 47 percent had an unfavorable impression. Among women, 60 percent had a favorable impression of the Black Lives Matter movement, while 30 percent had an unfavorable impression.

In Wisconsin, 51 percent of poll respondents said they had a favorable impression of the Black Lives Matter movement, while 42 percent said they had an unfavorable impression. Among men, 46 percent had a favorable impression, while 45 percent had an unfavorable impression. Among women, 56 percent had a favorable impression of the Black Lives Matter movement, while 39 percent had an unfavorable impression.

In Nevada, 52 percent of poll respondents said they had a favorable impression of the Black Lives Matter movement, while 43 percent said they had an unfavorable impression. Among men, 46 percent had a favorable impression, while 48 percent had an unfavorable impression. Among women, 59 percent had a favorable impression of the Black Lives Matter movement, while 34 percent had an unfavorable impression.

In New Hampshire, 54 percent of poll respondents said they had a favorable impression of the Black Lives Matter movement, while 38 percent said they had an unfavorable impression. Among men, 47 percent had a favorable impression, while 47 percent had an unfavorable impression. Among women, 61 percent had a favorable impression of the Black Lives Matter movement, while 31 percent had an unfavorable impression.

Michael Patrick Leahy

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