Wednesday, September 23, 2020

Minnesota Poll: Joe Biden 48%, Donald Trump 44%

The presidential race in Minnesota, which has not gone to a Republican candidate since 1972, is tightening, according to a survey from Morning Consult released Tuesday.

Morning Consult found Joe Biden (D) leading President Trump in Minnesota 48 percent to 44 percent — a lead within the survey’s +/- 4 point margin of error, indicating a statistical tie.

Biden enjoyed a double-digit advantage in the Gopher State in May — an advantage that seemingly diminished following violent protests by far-left activists:

Biden led by 17 points in mid-May amid a surge of COVID-19 cases in the state before the gap closed to 3 points in the aftermath of protests following the Minneapolis police killing of George Floyd on May 25. July’s nationwide surge of coronavirus cases dovetailed with a 13-point lead for Biden before the race narrowed again amid the national nominating conventions and the GOP’s heightened focus on a law-and-order message.

An August poll conducted by the Trafalgar Group for Conservative Clergy of Color showed approval of the Black Lives Matter movement gradually waning in the state.

The Morning Consult survey also showed Biden leading among urban voters (67 percent to 26 percent) and Trump enjoying an advantage among rural voters, 56 percent to 38 percent. The former vice president has a slight edge among suburban voters, 47 percent to 43 percent.

The survey, taken September 4-13 among 643 likely voters across Minnesota, has a margin of error of +/- 4 percent.

Several recent polls have indicated that Minnesota is a play in the upcoming presidential election. An Emerson College poll released in August showed Biden leading by just three percentage points — a lead within the survey’s 3.6 percent margin of error. A Trafalgar Group survey released that same month also showed the two in the midst of a dead heat:

Our new @trafalgar_group
#2020Election#BattlegroundState#MN#poll conducted Aug 15-18 shows a statistical tie,
46.9% @JoeBiden,
46.5% @realDonaldTrump,
3.7% @Jorgensen4POTUS,
1.2% Another Party Candidate, 1.7% Und. See Report:

— Robert C. Cahaly (@RobertCahaly) August 20, 2020

President Trump lost Minnesota in 2016 by 1.5 percent. If he were to take the state in November, it would be the first time Minnesota voters backed a Republican presidential candidate in 48 years.

Hannah Bleau

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