Housing Starts And Permits Surged In February (Despite Plunging Rate-Cut Odds)

Housing Starts and Permits rebounded firmly in February from an ugly January.

Starts soared 10.7% MoM (+8.2% exp) recovering some of the 12.3% MoM decline in January and Permits jumped 1.9% (+0.5% exp) from the upwardly revised -0.3% MoM decline in January...

housing starts and permits surged in february despite plunging rate cut odds

Source: Bloomberg

That was the biggest monthly jump in Starts since May and biggest permits rise since August.

With weather being blamed for January's decline, February seems like a return to post-COVID lower norms...

housing starts and permits surged in february despite plunging rate cut odds

Source: Bloomberg

Under the hood, rental unit housing permits outpaced single-family units

  • Single-Family: up 1.0% to 1.031MM from 1.021MM

  • Rentals: up 2.4% to 429K from a four year low of 419K

housing starts and permits surged in february despite plunging rate cut odds

On the Housing Starts side, single-family units rose more (but both saw signifiant rises):

  • Single-Family: up 11.6% to 1.129MM, highest since April 2022, from 1.012MM

  • Rentals: up 8.6% to 377K from 347K

housing starts and permits surged in february despite plunging rate cut odds

All good news for the meager supply out there. The question is - with rate-cut odds plummeting, has homebuilder confidence, which recently spiked back above 50, got too far over their skis on expectations of The Fed saving the day.

housing starts and permits surged in february despite plunging rate cut odds

If they build it, will homebuyers come?

Authored by Tyler Durden via ZeroHedge March 19th 2024