Goldman Sachs analysts have released a new note this morning, raising their price forecast for 2H25 copper. The upgrade stems from tightening global supplies, as the ongoing US Section 232 investigation into the industrial metal drives massive inflows into the domestic market.
"The ex-US copper market has tightened, causing fears of a regional copper shortage despite the global market currently being in surplus," a team of Goldman analysts, led by Eoin Dinsmore, wrote in a note to institutional clients.
As a result of the ongoing US Section 232 copper investigation, Dinsmore told clients this "continues to drive an unusually wide gap between COMEX (US) and LME (UK) prices, resulting in the US over-importing ~400kt of copper so far this year. US inventory has risen to over 100 days worth of consumption, up from just 33 days at the beginning of the year."
