Goldman Sachs: Trump Raises Voters' Wages with Tight Labor Market
Goldman Sachs says blue-collar and middle-class wages jumped by four percent in the last 12 months — after discounting inflation — and are likely to keep growing in President Donald Trump’s “Hire American” economy.
Trump’s low immigration “tight labor market” policy played a key role, the report acknowledged: “Even if job growth slows as the labor market tightens, labor income should continue to grow at a healthy pace,” says the March 12 report titled “Wage Growth by Income Level: Acceleration From Below.”
Moreover, rising blue-collar wages are likely to spur yet more economic growth as Americans spend their higher wages, said the report. “Wage growth has picked up sharply in the bottom half of the wage distribution … The solid wage growth suggests a relatively optimistic outlook on consumption.”
The four percent growth was gained by everyone who earned up to $45 per hour. People who earn more than $45 per hour, however, saw a salary gain of just two percent.
If the Hire American trend continues until the 2020 election, Trump will have delivered a historic wage increase of roughly 14 percent to more than 100 million American voters by election day.
The Goldman Sachs report did not explain why salaries grew slowly for college graduate Americans who earn more than $45 per hour or $94,000 a year. However, the report suggested that high-level salaries rise and fall with corporate profits — but that explanation is undermined by the low salaries amid the massive scale of corporate profits in 2018.
One reason why higher salaries stalled amid massive profits is likely the hidden army of at least 1.5 million foreign temporary workers who have been flooded into the U.S. job market for college graduates.
These visa workers enter U.S. jobs via the H-1B, L-1, B-1, OPT, CPT, and TN guest worker programs, and they work for very low wages in the hope of getting U.S. green cards and citizenship. In fact, some of the L-1 and OPT workers accept minimum wages and live in packed rooms for many years in the hope of escaping the restrictive cultures and limited economic opportunities in India and China.
The foreign graduates’ willingness to accept poverty wages — and to often move from job to job — ensures they are frequently hired by brand name U.S. companies. The major U.S. companies hide their use of cheap foreign graduates by subcontracting the jobs to various U.S.-based companies which specialize in importing and hiring Indian, Chinese, and Filipino graduates. This shell game ensures U.S. graduates lose starter jobs, mid-career promotions, and salaries because they are often discarded when middle managers pick employees for the next contract.
This vast army of foreign contingent workers is mostly used in software, computer, accounting, healthcare, and education jobs, but they are also hired for jobs in the fashion, design, and architecture fields. The scale of outsourcing business in cities and states is tracked by several websites, including MyVisaJobs.com and SAITJ.org.
Worse, Congress is currently considering a plan that would dramatically expand job outsourcing to graduates from China, India, and the Phillippines.
The bill’s advocates say it will not raise the annual number of green cards, but will just lift onerous “country caps” that ensure that Indian visa workers can now only get 23,000 of the 140,000 green cards which are annually given to foreign employees of U.S. companies. Advocates also say the extra green cards will end the backlog of 300,000 Indians working and waiting in the line for green cards.
But a greater Indian share of the 140,000 green cards may encourage more Indians to take more U.S jobs from more U.S. graduates, according to a 2018 report by the Congressional Research Service. The promise of “shorter wait times for [green cards] might actually incentivize greater numbers of nationals from India, China, and the Philippines to seek employment-based [green card] status,” a CRS report warned legislators. “If that were to occur, the reduction in the number of approved [green card] petitions pending might be short-lived,” allowing the backlog to grow even longer, said the December 2018 report.
Weird but true: GOP and Dems in Congress are offering fast-track green cards to encourage 300,000+ vr. low wage Indian workers to take jobs from middle class American voters & graduates. FWIW I don't think the pols & staffers recognize what they are doing https://t.co/4TIUFzhC9b
— Neil Munro (@NeilMunroDC) March 1, 2019
The graduate outsourcing bills are titled H.R. 1044 and S. 386.
The Senate co-sponsors of the outsourcing bill include:
- Sen. Roy Blunt (R-MO)
- Sen. Susan Collins (R-ME)
- Sen. Jim Moran (R-KS)
- Sen. Tom Carper (D-DE)
- Sen. Ron Wyden (D-OR)
- Sen. Maria Cantwell (D-WA)
- Sen. Cory Gardner (R-CO)
- Sen. Tom Cotton (R-AR)
- Sen. Tammy Baldwin (D-WI)
- Sen. Jeff Merkley (D-OR)
- Sen. Michael Bennet (D-CO)
- Sen. Kevin Cramer (R-ND)
- Sen. Krysten Sinema (D-AZ)
The House sponsors are cited here, and they include:
Rep. Ken Buck, R-Colo., Rep. Don Bacon, R-Neb., Rep. Any Barr, R-Ky, Rep. Gus Bilirakis, R-Fla, Rep. Susan Brooks, R-Ind, Rep. Ken Calvert, Ken, R-Calif., Rep. Ken Calvert, Ken, R-Calif., Rep. Jenniffer Gonzalez-Colon, R-P.R., Rep. Michael Guest, R-Miss., Rep. Brett Guthrie, R-Ky., Rep. John Curtis, R-Utah., Rep. Rodney Davis, R-Ill., Rep. Tom Emmer, R-Minn., Rep. Ron Estes, R-Kan., Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick, R-Pa., Rep. Bob Gibbs, R-Ohio., Rep. Bill Foster, D-Il., Rep. Vincente Gonzalez, D-Texas., Rep. Jaime Herrera Beutler, R-Wash., Rep. Jody Hice, R-Ga., Rep. French Hill, R-Ark., Rep. Will Hurd, R-Texas., Rep. Bill Johnson, R-Ohio., Rep. John Katko, R-N.Y., Rep. Peter King, R-N.Y., Rep. Adam Kinzinger, R-Ill., Rep. Billy Long, R-Mo., Rep. Roger Marshall, R-Kans., Rep. Thomas Massie, R-Ky., Rep. Cathy McMorris Rodgers, R-Wash., Rep. Ralph Norman, R-S.C., Rep. Scott Perry, R-Pa., Rep. Denver Riggleman, R-Va., Rep. David Roe, R-Tenn., Rep. John Rutherford, R-Fla., Rep. Elise, Stefanik, R-N.Y., Rep. Chris Stewart, R-Utah., Rep. Steve Stivers, R-Ohio, Rep. Fred Upton, R-Mich., Rep. Ann Wagner, R-Mo., Rep. Bruce Westerman, R-Ark., Rep. Don Young, R-Ak., Rep. Dan Newhouse, R-Wash., Rep. Pete Stauber, R-Minn., Rep. David Schweikert, R-Az., Rep. Steven Watkins, R-Kan., Rep. Rob Bishop, R-Utah., Rep. Mac Thornberry, R-Texas., Rep. Mike Kelly, R-Pa., Rep. David Rouzer, R-N.C., Rep. Larry Bucshon, R-Ind., Rep. Lance Gooden, R-Texas., Rep. Glenn Thompson, R-Pa., Rep. Joyce Beatty, D-Ohio, Rep. Ami Bera, D-Calif, Rep. Earl Blumenauer, D-Ore, Rep. Suzanne Bonamici, D-Ore., Rep. Julia Brownley, D-Calif., Rep. Tony Cardenas, D-Calif., Rep. Andre Carson, D-Ind., Rep. David Cicilline, D-R.I., Rep. Yvette Clarke, D-N.Y., Rep. Steve Cohen, D-Tenn., Rep. James Comer, D-Ky., Rep. Jim Cooper, D-Tenn., Rep. Jim Costa, D-Calif., Rep. Joe Courtney, D-Conn., Rep. T.J. Cox, D-Calif., Rep. Jason Crow, D-Colo., Rep. Diana DeGette, D-Colo., Rep. Ted Deutch, D-Fla., Rep. Debbie Dingell, D-Mich., Rep. Michael Doyle, D-Pa., Rep. Eliot Engel, D-N.Y., Rep. Anna Eshoo, D-Calif., Rep. Adriano Espaillat, D-N.Y., Rep. Sharice Davids, D-Kan., Rep. Josh Harder, D-Calif., Rep. Sheila Jackson Lee, D-Texas., Rep. Pramila Jayapal, D-Wash., Rep. Eddie Johnson, D-Texas., Rep. Hank Johnson, D-Ga., Rep. Ro Khanna, D-Calif., Rep. Ron Kind, D-Wisc., Rep. Raja Krishnamoorthi, D-Ill., Rep. Ann Kuster, D-N.H., Rep. James Langevin, D-R.I., Rep. Rick Larsen, D-Wash., Rep. Al Lawson, D-Fla., Rep. Alan Lowenthal, D-Calif., Rep. Tom Malinowski, D-N.J., Rep. Doris Matsui, D-Calif., Rep. Lucy McBath, D-Ga., Rep. Betty McCollum, D-Minn., Rep. Donald McEachin, D-Va., Rep. James McGovern, D-Mass., Rep. Gregory Meeks, D-N.Y., Rep. Grace Meng, D-N.Y., Rep. Gwen Moore, D-Wisc., Rep. Joseph Morelle, D-N.Y., Rep. Frank Pallone, D-N.J., Rep. Jimmy Panetta, D-Calif., Rep. Bill Pascrell, D-N.J., Rep. Chellie Pingree, D-Maine., Rep. Kathleen Rice, D-N.Y., Rep. John Sarbanes, D-Md., Rep. Jan Schakowsky, D-Ill., Rep. Donna Shalala, D-Fla., Rep. Albio Sires, D-N.J., Rep. Adam Smith, D-Wash., Rep. Darren Soto, D-Fla., Rep. Jackie Speier, D-Calif., Rep. Eric Swalwell, D-Calif., Rep. Mark Takano, D-Calif., Rep. Dina Titus, D-N.V., Rep. Paul Tonko, D-N.Y., Rep. Norma Torres, D-Calif., Rep. Bonnie Watson Coleman, D-N.J., Rep. Peter Welch, D-Vt., Rep. Susan Wild, D-Pa., Rep. Rob Woodall, R-Ga., Rep. John Yarmuth, D-Ky., Rep. Jerrold Nadler, D-N.Y., Rep. Pete Aguilar, D-Ca., Rep. Stephanie Murphy, D-Fla., Rep. Suzan DelBene, D-Wash., Rep. Salud Carbajal, D-Calif., Rep. Nydia Velazquez, D-N.Y., Rep. Lois Frankel, D-Fla., Rep. Debbie Wasserman Schultz, D-Fla., Rep. Mary Scanlon, D-Pa., Rep. John Garamendi, D-Ga., Rep. Jared Golden, D-Maine., Rep. Sylvia Garcia, D-Texas., Rep. Joe Kennedy, D-Mass., Rep. Matt Cartwright, D-Pa., Rep. Bradley Schneider, D-Ill., Rep. Bobby Rush, D-Ill., Rep. Sean Patrick, D-N.Y., Rep. Kim Schrier, D-Wash., Rep. Conor Lamb, D-Pa., Rep. Brian Higgins, D-N.Y., Rep. Alma Adams, D-N.C., Rep. Alcee Hastings, D-Fla., Rep. Scott Peters, D-Calif., Rep. Robin Kelly, D-Ill., Rep. Derek Kilmer, D-Wash.
Business groups are also backing additional legislation to dramatically loosen the tight labor market that is driving up Americans ‘wages.
On March 13, for example, business groups applauded draft legislation that would provide green cards to at least two million DACA illegal aliens — “Dreamers” — and other temporary residents in the United States.
FWD.us, a lobbying group which was founded by investors led by Facebook’s Mark Zuckerberg, tweeted:
“We are thankful for @RepRoybalAllard, @NydiaVelazquez & @RepYvetteClarke for leading this effort to protect Dreamers. Their actions help move the debate forward and we support their efforts to move this legislation forward in a bipartisan fashion.” Thank you for your leadership! pic.twitter.com/aCYBgM1yPb
— Todd Schulte (@TheToddSchulte) March 14, 2019
Even though Goldman Sachs says that wages rise when fewer workers are competing for jobs, Todd Schulte, the director of Zuckerberg’s FWD.us, insists that wages really rise when more workers are competing for jobs:
It is no surprise they usually just assert this and don’t offer factual backup!
— Todd Schulte (@TheToddSchulte) March 11, 2019
Each year, roughly four million young Americans join the workforce after high school or university. The federal government then imports roughly 1.1 million legal immigrants, refreshes a resident population of roughly 1.5 million white-collar guest workers and roughly 500,000 blue-collar visa workers, and it also tolerates eight million illegal workers.
In 2019, because of catch-and-release rules mandated by Congress and the courts, the federal government also will likely release at least 350,000 Central American laborers into the U.S. job market, even as at least 500,000 more migrants sneak past U.S. border defenses or overstay their visas.
Overall, in 2019, the U.S. government will allow at least two million new foreign workers into the United States to compete for the starter jobs sought by the latest wave of four million U.S. graduates. The new migrants also undermine the 24 million other Americans and the roughly three million legal immigrants who have joined the workforce since 2014.
This federal policy of using legal and illegal migration to boost economic growth for investors shifts enormous wealth from young employees towards older investors by flooding the market with cheap white-collar and blue-collar foreign labor.
This cheap labor economic policy forces Americans to compete even for low wage jobs, it widens wealth gaps, reduces high tech investment, increases state and local tax burdens, hurts kids’ schools and college education, pushes Americans away from high-tech careers, and sidelines millions of marginalized Americans, including many who are now struggling with fentanyl addictions.
We must be honest with young people that the only way to become successful in this new world is to become elite at something (whatever it is—sports, music, medicine, tech, banking, etc.) And that is where our government’s efforts should be singularly focused—skill development
— Leon Fresco (@FrescoLeon) March 11, 2019
Immigration also destabilizes politics, and it steers investment and wealth away from towns in Heartland states because coastal investors can more easily hire and supervise the large immigrant populations who prefer to live in coastal cities.