Danish shipping giant A.P. Moller-Maersk posted solid first-quarter growth but issued a stark warning, slashing its 2025 outlook for the global transport market amid mounting macroeconomic headwinds, primarily driven by President Trump's ongoing trade war with China.
Maersk warned about "increased uncertainty leading to a more cautious container volume growth outlook" because of the trade war, which has caused container volumes between China and the US to slide in recent weeks.
"Maersk maintains its full-year 2025 guidance of underlying EBITDA of USD 6-9bn, underlying EBIT of USD 0-3bn and free cash flow of at least negative USD 3.0bn," the shipper said.
However, it revised the global container market volume growth for 2025 to between -1% and 4% because of the trade disruption between the US and China.
It added: "Maersk expects to grow in line with the market. The disruption in the Red Sea is expected to continue throughout the rest of the year."
In an earlier interview, Maersk CEO Vincent Clerc told Bloomberg TV that the trade war "is mostly a US-China issue, the rest of the world continues unabated."
Clerc pointed out that the 145% tariffs on Chinese goods entering the US and the 125% tariffs on US goods entering China have already "taken a bite" out of the container market in April, and volumes in China-US trade have plunged "30% to 40% in both directions."
He noted that Maersk is one of the least exposed shippers on China-US and/or US-China shipping lanes because most of its sailings are between Asia and Europe.
"The outlook for global container demand over the remainder of the year remains highly uncertain, shaped by a rapidly evolving trade policy landscape and increasing recession risks in the US," Maersk said.
It still views the second quarter as one full of growth, "particularly if shippers capitalize on the 90-day pause of reciprocal tariffs by frontloading shipments and building inventories."
UBS analyst Cristian Nedeclu anticipates a 5% year-over-year decline in containerized freight volumes at the Port of Los Angeles on a four-week rolling basis in May. He also flagged a sharp drop in capacity utilization on inbound vessels, which is currently hovering around 50%—well below the typical 85–90% range.
The Port of Los Angeles serves as a vital artery in the American economy, channeling the flow of Chinese goods that keep supply chains humming, shelves stocked, and factories moving. However, risks of shortages of low-inventory Chinese goods are mounting.
Maersk's warning coincided with those of Toyota, Mitsubishi Motors, Mercedes-Benz, Volvo Cars, Ford, and General Motors about levies that have sent the global auto industry into a tailspin.
As we detailed, there is a glimmer of hope: Trump To Reveal "Major Trade Deal" Between US-UK ... And it begins.
