Final RealClearPolitics Polling Averages Had Hillary Clinton Winning Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania
The final polling averages showed Hillary Clinton winning the three crucial swing states of Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin in 2016 — a fact critics of current polling point to as the presidential race enters its final stretch.
Polls are tightening as Election Day rapidly approaches, but few polls show President Trump enjoying a lead in the key Rust Belt states he carried in 2016. A snapshot of Saturday’s morning’s RealClearPolitics (RCP) average in each state is as follows:
Michigan: Biden +7.2
Pennsyvlania: Biden +5.6
Wisconsin: Biden +6.3
Since the beginning of the year, only three surveys included in RCP’s average have shown Trump leading in Michigan. Similarly, in the same time span, only three polls in RCP’s average have shown Trump leading in Wisconsin, and only one has had him leading in Pennsylvania, with two others reporting ties.
Trump has publicly questioned the accuracy of recent polls repeatedly on social media.
“The Real Polls are starting to look GREAT! We will be having an even bigger victory than that of 2016. The Radical Left Anarchists, Agitators, Looters, and just plain Lunatics, will not be happy, but they will behave!” Trump said in September:
The Real Polls are starting to look GREAT! We will be having an even bigger victory than that of 2016. The Radical Left Anarchists, Agitators, Looters, and just plain Lunatics, will not be happy, but they will behave!
— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) September 8, 2020
Trump’s suspicion prompts a look at the 2016 polls, which famously had Trump losing the key swing states.
RCP’s final average in 2016:
Michigan: Clinton +3.6
Pennsyvlania: Clinton +2.1
Wisconsin: Clinton +6.5
In reality, Trump won Michigan in by .3 percent, Pennsylvania by .7 percent, and Wisconsin by .7 percent.
As Breitbart News recently reported, over a dozen polls in October 2016 also showed Clinton with a sizeable lead over Trump nationally. Several showed the former secretary of state holding a double-digit lead:
1. PRRI/Brookings Poll released on October 19: Hillary Clinton leading Donald Trump by 15 points
2. NBC/Wall Street Journal Poll released on October 10: Hillary Clinton leading Donald Trump by 14 points in a one-on-one contest and 11 points in a four way race
3. AP Poll released on October 26: Hillary Clinton leading Donald Trump by 14 points
4. Monmouth University Poll released on October 17: Hillary Clinton leading Donald Trump by 12 points
5. ABC Poll released on October 23: Hillary Clinton leading Donald Trump by 12 points
6. Atlantic/PRRI Poll released on October 9: Hillary Clinton leading Donald Trump by 11 points
7. Saint Leo University Poll released on October 26: Hillary Clinton leading Donald Trump by 11 points
8. USA Today/Suffolk University Poll released on October 27: Hillary Clinton leading Donald Trump by ten points in a one-on-one race and by nine points in a four way race.
9. Fairleigh Dickinson University Poll released on October 6: Hillary Clinton leading Donald Trump by ten points
10. SurveyUSA/Boston Globe Poll released on October 14: Hillary Clinton leading Donald Trump by ten points
11. CBS Poll released on October 17: Hillary Clinton leading Donald Trump by nine points
12. Bloomberg Poll released on October 19: Hillary Clinton leading Donald Trump by nine points
13. CNBC Poll released on October 27: Hillary Clinton leading Donald Trump by nine points
Notably, Trafalgar Group, which Tom Bevan, co-founder and president of RCP, has referred to as “one of the most accurate polling operations in America,” has recently had Trump and Biden statistically tied in Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania:
Our new @trafalgar_group#2020Election#BattlegroundState#MIpoll conducted Oct 11-14 still shows a thin Trump lead:
46.5% @realDonaldTrump,
45.9% @JoeBiden,
2.5% @Jorgensen4POTUS,
2.2% all others,
2.2% Und. See Report: https://t.co/dcPtMMUSpxpic.twitter.com/l1whvPtn1f— Robert C. Cahaly (@RobertCahaly) October 16, 2020
Trump is edging closer in Wisconsin, our brand new RP/Trafalgar poll shows. The race is tightening, says 2016's most accurate pollster.@trafalgar_group@RobertCahaly
Full report here: https://t.co/Hd8SYFk1Azpic.twitter.com/PkphRgipjQ
— RestorationPAC (@restorationpac) October 15, 2020
Our new @trafalgar_group#2020Election#BattlegroundState#PApoll conducted Oct 10-12 shows Biden leading with:
47.4% @JoeBiden,
45.1% @realDonaldTrump,
3.1% @Jorgensen4POTUS,
2.6% all others,
1.6% Und. See Report: https://t.co/eLE6hjCZhOpic.twitter.com/Qwcd4z4Yk9— Robert C. Cahaly (@RobertCahaly) October 13, 2020