China Becomes A Scientific Superpower
In our Saturday post ("Summoning A God"), one of the concerns Leopold Aschenbrenner expressed about AI was that China would achieve machine super intelligence before the U.S. Given that The Economist now acknowledges that China has become a scientific superpower, Aschenbrenner's fear may have been warranted.
As China-based entrepreneur Arnaud Bertrand points out in his thread on this below, that The Economist, a mouthpiece of the neoliberal West, is writing something this bullish about China is itself remarkable.
The other key point Bertrand highlights is that more Chinese scientists are now returning to China than moving to the U.S. This pours cold water on the false hope expressed by some immigration advocates in the U.S. that "our" Chinese could help us compete with China.
Firstly, surprising that The Economist would publish this, given how much they've pushed the "China collapse" narrative over the years, and how negative they've always been about the country.
— Arnaud Bertrand (@RnaudBertrand) June 14, 2024
Maybe they figured that at some point they could only get away with so much... pic.twitter.com/7ObbILHzOM
China's rise in that dimension was insanely fast: "In 2003 America produced 20 times more of these high-impact papers than China... By 2013 America produced about 4 times the number of top papers and, in the most recent release of data, which examines papers from 2022 China had…
— Arnaud Bertrand (@RnaudBertrand) June 14, 2024
Looking by discipline, China leads 8 out of the 14 main scientific disciplines, including maths and physics.
— Arnaud Bertrand (@RnaudBertrand) June 14, 2024
In some disciplines like materials science, chemistry or engineering, it completely dominates the discipline with 70% to 80% of all high-impact papers published. pic.twitter.com/nG5qrJhajR
Looking at people and education, two crucial points:
— Arnaud Bertrand (@RnaudBertrand) June 14, 2024
1) Contrary to popular belief, China is a net importer of scientists: "since the late 2000s, more scientists have been returning to the country than leaving" pic.twitter.com/bDDcSjwvTB
The Economist points out - correctly - that it's high time the West takes notice of this new reality. Today Western scientists cite Chinese peers far less than vice-versa, and very few Western scientists visit, work or study in China, to learn from China in the way Chinese… pic.twitter.com/nefv4DPrR3
— Arnaud Bertrand (@RnaudBertrand) June 14, 2024
The Economist points out - correctly - that it's high time the West takes notice of this new reality. Today Western scientists cite Chinese peers far less than vice-versa, and very few Western scientists visit, work or study in China, to learn from China in the way Chinese… pic.twitter.com/nefv4DPrR3
— Arnaud Bertrand (@RnaudBertrand) June 14, 2024
Betting On China
We've made three bets on underpriced Chinese stocks this year, the most recent of which was an EV maker, that might be better than Tesla. You can read about it here.
If you'd like to stay in touch
You can scan for optimal hedges for individual securities, find our current top ten names, and create hedged portfolios on our website. You can also follow Portfolio Armor on X here, or become a free subscriber to our trading Substack using the link below (we're using that for our occasional emails now).
