For the first time in the history of the report, the US dropped out of the top twenty happiest nations. The youth poll (30 and under) is a disaster for the US, Germany, Canada, France, Japan, and China.
Please consider the World Happiness Report for 2024.
Key Happiness Details
Overall Rankings: The top 10 countries have remained much the same since before COVID. Finland is still top, with Denmark now very close, and all five Nordic countries in the top 10. But in the next 10, there is more change, with the transition countries of Eastern Europe rising in happiness (especially Czechia, Lithuania and Slovenia). Partly for this reason the United States and Germany have fallen to 23 and 24 in the rankings.
Happiness Trends by Age Group: In North America, happiness has fallen so sharply for the young that they are now less happy than the old. By contrast, in the transition countries of Central and Eastern Europe, the young are much happier than the old.
Global Trends: In most countries life satisfaction drops gradually from childhood through adolescence and into adulthood. Globally, young people aged 15-24 still report higher life satisfaction than older adults. But the picture varied by region. Youth wellbeing fell in North America, Western Europe, Middle East and North Africa, and South Asia. In the rest of the world it rose.
Negativity: Negative emotions are more frequent than in 2006-2010 everywhere except East Asia and both parts of Europe.
Millennials and Zoomers: Age and generation both matter for happiness. As between generations, those born before 1965 (Boomers and their predecessors) have life evaluations about one-quarter of a point higher than those born after 1980 (Millennials and Gen Z). Within each generation, life evaluations rise with age for those in the older generations and fall with age for the younger ones, with little age effect for those in between.
Happiness Age 30 and Below
Clearly this was taken before the Hamas attack in Israel.
Q: Where’s the US?
A: #62
Australia is #19, Germany is #47, France #48, Canada #58, Japan #73, China #79.
Happiness Age 60 and Above
The US, Canada, and Australia are in the top ten list of happiness age 60 and older.
Serious Economic Implications
Unhappy 30-year-olds don’t have kids because they don’t see a future.
In the US, those age 30 and younger believe they will be worse off than their parents. I think they are correct in that assessment.
The economy is allegedly booming, but only the asset holders have benefitted.
Gen Z, the Most Pessimistic Generation in History
Young adults are more skeptical of government and pessimistic about the future than any living generation before them. This is with reason, and it’s likely to decide the election.
Economic Reality
Gen Z may be the first generation in US history that is not better off than their parents.
Many have given up on the idea they will ever be able to afford a home.
The economy is allegedly booming (I disagree). Regardless, stress over debt is high with younger millennials and zoomers.
This has been a constant theme of mine for many months.
Credit Card and Auto Delinquencies Soar
Credit card debt surged to a record high in the fourth quarter. Even more troubling is a steep climb in 90 day or longer delinquencies.
Record High Credit Card Debt
Credit card debt rose to a new record high of $1.13 trillion, up $50 billion in the quarter. Even more troubling is the surge in serious delinquencies, defined as 90 days or more past due.
For nearly all age groups, serious delinquencies are the highest since 2011.
Auto Loan Delinquencies
Serious delinquencies on auto loans have jumped from under 3 percent in mid-2021 to to 5 percent at the end of 2023 for age group 18-29.Age group 30-39 is also troubling. Serious delinquencies for age groups 18-29 and 30-39 are at the highest levels since 2010.
For further discussion please see Credit Card and Auto Delinquencies Soar, Especially Age Group 18 to 39
Generational Homeownership Rates
Home ownership rates courtesy of Apartment List
The above chart is from the Apartment List’s 2023 Millennial Homeownership Report
Those struggling with rent are more likely to be Millennials and Zoomers than Generation X, Baby Boomers, or members of the Silent Generation.
The same age groups struggling with credit card and auto delinquencies.
On Average Everything is Great
Average it up, and things look pretty good. This is why we have seen countless stories attempting to explain why people should be happy.
Krugman Blames Partisanship
With the recent rise in consumer sentiment, time to revisit this excellent Briefing Book paper. On reflection, I'd do it a bit differently; same basic conclusion, but I think partisan asymmetry explains even more of the remaining low numbers 1/ https://t.co/4lqm7X4472
— Paul Krugman (@paulkrugman) February 17, 2024
OK, there is a fair amount of partisanship in the polls.
However, Biden isn’t struggling from partisanship alone. If that was the reason, Biden would not be polling so miserably with Democrats in general, blacks, and younger voters.
This allegedly booming economy left behind the renters and everyone under the age of 40 struggling to make ends meet.
Many Are Addicted to “Buy Now, Pay Later” Plans
Buy Now Pay Later, BNPL, plans are increasingly popular. It’s another sign of consumer credit stress.
For discussion, please see Many Are Addicted to “Buy Now, Pay Later” Plans, It’s a Big Trap
The study did not break things down by home owners vs renters, but I strongly suspect most of the BNPL use is by renters.
What About Jobs?
Another seemingly strong jobs headline falls apart on closer scrutiny. The massive divergence between jobs and employment continued into February.
Nonfarm payrolls and employment levels from the BLS, chart by Mish.
Payrolls vs Employment Gains Since March 2023
Nonfarm Payrolls: 2,602,000
Employment Level: +144,000
Full Time Employment: -284,000
For more details of the weakening labor markets, please see Jobs Up 275,000 Employment Down 184,000
CPI Hot Again
CPI Data from the BLS, chart by Mish.
For discussion of the CPI inflation data for February, please see CPI Hot Again, Rent Up at Least 0.4 Percent for 30 Straight Months
Also note the Producer Price Index (PPI) Much Hotter Than Expected in February
Major Economic Cracks
There are economic cracks in spending, cracks in employment, and cracks in delinquencies.
But there are no cracks in the CPI. It’s coming down much slower than expected. And the PPI appears to have bottomed.
Add it up: Inflation + Recession = Stagflation.
Election Impact
In 2020, younger voters turned out in the biggest wave in history. And they voted for Biden.
Younger voters are not as likely to vote in 2024, and they are less likely to vote for Biden.
The Journal noted nearly one-third of voters under 30 have an unfavorable view of both Biden and Trump, a higher number than all older voters. Sixty-three percent of young voters think neither party adequately represents them.
Young voters in 2020 were energized to vote against Trump. Now they have thrown in the towel.
And Biden telling everyone how great the economy is only rubs salt in the wound.
Conclusions
Two completely different polls show millennials and zoomers are unhappy. And they are unhappy for the reasons I stated.
Many have concluded they will never be able to afford a house or have kids. Those who have concluded that are likely correct.
For more discussion, please see Gen Z, the Most Pessimistic Generation in History, May Decide the Election
