As infighting within the top echelons of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) intensifies, many China watchers are wondering if Chinese leader Xi Jinping is still in power and really in control, especially of the military.
According to long-standing CCP practice, a group of generals are promoted before Army Day on Aug. 1 every year. Since many generals were reported to have been taken down or investigated in an alleged military purge over the last year, whether Xi will promote any generals or announce new appointments before Aug. 1 has attracted attention as an indication of whether he’s still in control of the military.
Xu Qiliang, former vice chairman of the CCP’s Central Military Commission, the highest military leadership body of the communist regime, suddenly passed away on June 2, making him the latest casualty following a string of top CCP military officials who have encountered misfortunes, including sudden death, arrest, or simply disappearing.
Meanwhile, He Weidong, one of two vice chairmen of the Central Military Commission, whose status in the military is second only to the other vice chairman, Zhang Youxia, disappeared from the public eye on March 11 after the closing ceremony of the third session of the National People’s Congress. He is regarded as one of Xi’s most trusted men. There have been rumors coming out of Beijing that He was under investigation.
With this, some observers have speculated that Zhang is now in charge of the CCP’s military and that he stripped Xi’s power last year.
Since two other members of the Central Military Commission—Li Shangfu and Miao Hua—were successively brought down in the two years prior, if He’s absence is officially confirmed, the number of members of the Central Military Commission will drop from seven to four.
Who will fill these top military positions and who will replace the generals who have been pushed out is a focus for this year’s Army Day.
Generals in Prison Enough to Form a Military Company
In the past 13 years since Xi became CCP leader, he has launched waves of “anti-corruption” campaigns to purge his political enemies, many of whom were in the military, to consolidate his power.
“So much resentment has been accumulating for 13 years,” Su Tzu-yun, researcher and director of Division of Defense Strategy and Resources at Taiwan’s Institute for National Defense and Security Research, told the Chinese language Epoch Times on June 16. “The CCP’s internal struggle in the name of anti-corruption is more dangerous than a battlefield.”
But within one year from 2023 to 2024, the Chinese regime began to see purges, with 12 top PLA (People’s Liberation Army) officials removed in the name of “anti-corruption;” including Li Shangfu and Wei Fenghe who were both former ministers of defense, three rocket force commanders, and one air force commander, and others.
In 2024, overseas Chinese media re-posted a now-deleted X post by China observer “Li Jun” listing the names and ranks of 101 top CCP military leaders who were put in jail. Li said there were enough individuals to form a military company, with 97 being at “general-level” alongside four more “colonel-level” cadres.
Su noted that all the senior military officials purged over the last year were previously promoted to their position by Xi.
“At present, it seems that only Zhang Youxia has the power to carry out the purge, and Xi Jinping may have become a rubber stamp, otherwise, not all of them would be people from Xi’s faction,” he said.
U.S.-based China affairs observer Tang Jingyuan shares the same assessment. He told the Epoch Times on June 16 that “not only this wave of the large-scale purge is almost entirely aimed at Xi Jinping’s cronies ... those replacements are all people from Zhang Youxia’s faction,” while some positions after the purge remain vacant.
“This means there might have been a huge replacement and transfer of power in the CCP’s military,” Tang said. “Once control over the military is transferred, it means that the party leader’s power base has collapsed. So now, Xi Jinping may still be the top leader in name, but in fact, he has lost control of the highest power of the CCP.”
Shen Ming-shih, director of the Division of National Security Research at Taiwan’s Institute for National Defense and Security Research, told The Epoch Times on June 16 that such speculation is difficult to confirm as there is no public information about the power struggles within the CCP, and no way to get official clarification or proof of any internal strife either.
Soldiers of the People's Liberation Army are seen before a giant screen as Chinese leader Xi Jinping speaks at the military parade marking the 70th founding anniversary of the regime in Beijing on Oct. 1, 2019. Jason Lee/Reuters
“It’s expressed entirely through vague information or vague language, and even deliberately uses such vague language to indicate who is in power or who has stepped down. It’s harder for the outside world to read these signs.”
Possible Personnel Changes by Army Day
U.S.-based China affairs commentator Chen Pokong told The Epoch Times that this year’s Army Day will be a major point to observe who will be promoted in the military and which faction they belong to.
“If they really want to add new members to the Central Military Commission on the Aug. 1 Army Day, they must be confirmed by the Fourth Plenary Session of the CCP’s Central Committee, which is definitely a big fight between the Xi faction and the anti-Xi faction.”
If new members are added, it will also show which faction has the upper hand in the CCP’s infighting, Chen said.
Shen said it remains unclear which exact dates the Fourth Plenary Session of the Central Committee will be held amid the rumors of a power struggle.
“If it is held before the end of June, the CCP’s general secretary or the Central Military Commission will have made the personnel arrangement to promote a group of generals before the Aug. 1 Army Day,” he said.
Insiders close to the regime’s top circle have leaked two possible dates for the top CCP political meeting. Well-known independent current affairs commentator Cai Shenqun cited a source within the regime saying that the Fourth Plenary Session will be held Aug. 27 to Aug. 30.
Meanwhile, Australia-based current affairs commentator Jiang Wangzheng has said that according to his source in China, the top meeting will be held on Oct. 13 to Oct. 16.
Chen said that the CCP’s personnel arrangements are opaque and that it has been very difficult for the various factions to reach an agreement.
“The internal struggles of the CCP’s top leaders may be far more fierce than the outside world imagines, and the CCP and its military are in a precarious state,” he said.
