Monday, September 28, 2020

ABC-WaPo Polls Showing Trump Gaining in WI, Biden Leading in MN, Oversample Younger Voters

Two ABC-WashingtonPost polls released in a combined report on Wednesday that show Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden with a six point lead over President Trump in Wisconsin and a 16 point lead over Donald Trump in Minnesota oversample young voters significantly.

Biden leads Trump by 52 percent to 46 percent among likely voters in Wisconsin, and 57 percent to 41 percent among likely voters in Minnesota, according to a combined ABC-WashingtonPostpoll released on Wednesday.

Thirty-four percent of respondents in the ABC-WashingtonPostpoll of Minnesota are in the 18 to 29 year old age group, almost double the 19 percent of votes cast in the 2016 presidential election by voters in that age group.

The over sampling is slightly less pronounced in Wisconsin, where 31 percent of poll respondent are in the 18 to 29 year old age group.

By a wide margin, voters in the 18 to 29 year old age group favor Biden over Trump in every major national and state poll conducted since the 2020 presidential campaign began.

The poll of 605 likely voters in Wisconsin was conducted between September 8 and September 13, and has a margin of error of 4.5 percent.

The results of the head-to-head match up in Wisconsin between Biden and Trump was similar in the larger sample of 702 registered voters (which included 605 likely registered voters and 97 unlikely registered voters), where 50 percent backed Biden and 46 percent backed Trump.

The poll of 615 likely voters in Minnesota was also conducted between September 8 and September 13, and has a margin of error of four percent.

The results of the head-to-head match up between Biden and Trump was similar in the larger sample of 705 registered voters (which included 615 likely registered voters and 90 unlikely registered voters), where 57 percent backed Biden and 40 percent backed Trump.

“Views on the economy and the coronavirus pandemic define the race; the course of both may prove decisive,” the ABC-WashingtonPost analysis of the polls in the two neighboring battleground states noted, adding:

And turnout is a wildcard: As is the case nationally, Donald Trump benefits from much greater enthusiasm among his supporters, and they’re far more apt to plan to vote on Election Day. That makes Biden’s ability to mobilize early and absentee voting central to the outcome.

When asked “Do you support or oppose recent protests against police treatment of Black people?” 55 percent of registered voters in Minnesota said they support the recent protests, while 40 percent said they oppose them.

51 percent of registered voters in Wisconsin said they support the protests, while 44 percent oppose them.

Intensity of feeling differed among the respondents on this question in Minnesota. Thirty-six percent of respondents said they strongly support the recent protests, while 19 percent said they somewhat support them. In contrast, 29 percent of respondents said they strongly oppose the protests, while only 11 percent said they somewhat support them.

In Wisconsin, 35 percent of respondents said they strongly support the recent protests, while 17 percent say they somewhat support them. Thirty-one percent of respondent say they strongly oppose the recent protests, while 13 percent say they somewhat oppose them.

When asked, “Do you approve or disapprove of the way Trump is handling the coronavirus outbreak?” 60 percent of registered voters in Minnesota said they disapproved, while 39 percent said they approved.

That 21 point margin disapproving of Trump’s handling of the coronavirus outbreak among registered voters in Minnesota was only a ten point margin in Wisconsin, where 54 percent of registered voters said they disapproved, and 44 percent said they approved.

Disapproval was very intense, while intensity of approval was less so in both states

Fifty-two percent of respondents in Minnesota said they strongly disapproved, while only eight percent said they somewhat disapproved. In contrast, 25 percent said they strongly approved, while 14 percent said they somewhat approved.

In Wisconsin, 47 percent of respondents said they strongly disapproved, while only seven percent said they somewhat disapproved. In contrast, 30 percent said they strongly approved, while 15 percent said they somewhat approved.

The demographics of the weighted samples used in calculating the poll results were as follows:

AGE

  • Age 18 to 29 (34 percent MN, 31 percent WI)
  • Age 44 to 64 (44 percent MN, 44 percent WI)
  • 65 +(22 percent MN, 25 percent WI)

EDUCATION

  • High school or less (27 percent MN, 33 percent WI)
  • Some college (34 percent MN, 34 percent WI)
  • College graduate (38 percent MN, 33 percent WI)

RACE/ETHNICITY

  • Whites, non-Hispanic (85 percent MN, 87 percent WI)
  • Black, non Hispanic (4 percent MN, 5 percent WI)
  • Hispanic (4 percent MN, 3 percent WI)
  • Other (7 percent MN, 5 percent WI)

The current Real Clear Politics Average of Polls gives Biden a 6.7 point lead over Trump in Wisconsin.

President Trump won Wisconsin’s ten electoral college votes in 2016 over Hillary Clinton by the narrowest of margins–just 22,000 votes. The president’s victory in Wisconsin was perhaps the most surprising of all, and boosted his election day electoral college total from 296 to 306, bringing him to 36 more electoral college votes than the 270 he needed to win the presidency.

The current Real Clear Politics Average of Polls gives Biden a 10.2 point lead over Trump in Minnesota.

The results of the polls included in that average, however, are bi-modal.

Five polls conducted in September (ABC/WashingtonPost, CBS News/YouGov, NY Times/ Siena, KSTP/Survey USA, and PPP) give Biden a lead that ranges between eight points and 16 points.

Two polls conducted in August however, showed the race as tied (Trafalgar Group) or gave Biden a three point lead (Emerson College).

Hillary Clinton narrowly won Minnesota’s ten electoral college votes in 2016, with just 44,000 more votes than President Trump. The president’s re-election campaign has focused significant efforts in the state in this election cycle, and several recent polls, including the Democracy Institute/Sunday Express poll released earlier this month, project a Trump victory there on election day.

Michael Patrick Leahy

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