April marked the crisis phase, according to top Goldman Sachs macro trader Paolo Schiavone, we’ve now entered the Response Phase, with the Fed beginning to cut.
A new Fed Chair announced in Sept 2025 and a de facto nine months of a ‘Shadow Fed’ change risk assets risk/ reward.
Elephants are UK, AI, China, XBI, BRL, & BTC.
Oil prices will no longer be the transmission mechanism of risk on/ Risk off. Equity prices will be the transmission.
The easing in financial conditions we have experienced supports the goldilocks SPX 6400- 6700 Thesis.
