2025 Key Views Update
Our hypothesis that tech stock valuation downside and yen upside are exposed to a normalisation of the Japanese real bond yield is yet to be fully tested. On a medium-term horizon, this is an underestimated risk that justifies overweighting the yen and underweighting overvalued tech.
A supply-constrained US labour market is preventing a sharp rise in unemployment but steering the US economy into a ‘mini stagflation’.
Chinese government bond yields have a lot further to fall.
New tactical trades: Long JPY/EUR, short platinum.
