As expected, futures opened for trading amid a risk off tone, with oil, gold, the dollar and other safe havens ripping, but there is hardly any sense of panic, as investors remain calm with Iran so far showing no signs of retaliation to this weekend's US attacks.
While emini S&P futures opened about 60 points, or 1% lower, at 6pm ET, they have since trimmed the loss in half, and at last check were back to just shy of 6,000, and about 2% below all time highs.
A similar kneejerk reaction was observed in oil which surged in early Monday trading, with some trading models indicated WTI contracts would open around $79/bbl - which it did - but then quickly retraced gains by half, rising $3 to $76...
... which is also well below the implied price assuming the Polymarket odds of a straits of Hormuz closure are accurate at 35% (assuming a fair value for oil of $60, and a worst case scenario of $120 at full closure), oil should be trading around $80.
The Swiss franc is the only major currency which is holding its own against the US dollar in early action, with the yen - which supposedly was on its way to becoming a new "flight to safety" in the (don't laugh) world where the US was no longer exceptional, tumbling and reminding everyone that Japan with its mingblowing 400% in consolidated debt/GDP is the biggest basket case of all, and the yen will be trading at 1000 first before it goes back to 100 (and that's only after the BOJ pulls a Maduro and chops off a number of zeros from the currency).
As for fiat alternatives, we once again are seeing mirror reactions, with gold spiking and ramping onward to all time highs...
... while the high beta "digital gold" - which as always was the only asset class open during the weekend's peak stress moments when panicans dumped it in droves as they always do - slumped as it always does when there is geopolitical turmoil, confirming yet again that bitcoin and the crypto space in general has a long way to go before it becomes a true safe asset.
