By Michael Every of Rabobank
Friday saw US payrolls do their usual comic thing and prove the ADP employment print using ostensibly the same methodology earlier entirely wrong. Jobs were 139K vs. 126K consensus with an unchanged 4.2% unemployment rate and average hourly earnings up 0.4%, a tick more than expected. Some pointed to a huge drop in the household survey which could mean a downturn and deflation ahead; and others pointed to those same perhaps being illegal workers exiting stage left under the new White House, so a boom led by wage inflation. Who can tell at this stage? Not anybody looking at an Excel spreadsheet, surely.
Moreover, if you think that’s all that’s going on you must have spent the weekend deep in a cave, high on a mountain, or on a yacht heading towards the East Med.
- In geopolitics, Ukraine delivered another big drone blow to Russia, this time hiding them in grain containers, with worrying implications for the ease of modern warfare and unease over global trade. The US also fears asymmetrical Russian retaliation above and beyond strikes on Ukrainian cities.
- The New York Times claimed Russian spies are spooked by China, which they still refer to as an “enemy”. If so, tell me more about this inevitable BRICS future, please.
- Right-wing Colombian opposition senator and presidential candidate Miguel Uribe Turbay was shot twice in the head in Bogotá on Saturday evening, bringing back the spectre of political violence there.
- Iran claims it stole Israeli intel materials, including nuclear documents, which makes a change from the other way round, but doesn’t spell ‘peace for our time’ in that region. Meanwhile, Israel claims to have found documents proving Qatar backed Hamas in thwarting President Trump’s first term peace initiative - which would surprise few in the region if true. Hamas’s Khaled Mashaal reportedly told Qatar’s Al Thani, “We need to cooperate in order to resist the deal of the century and thwart it.” It remains to be seen what the consequences might be today given Qatar’s even greater influence --allegedly, even in Israel-- and Jerusalem’s lower diplomatic standing in the West.
- France's defence ministry has reportedly approached Renault to manufacture drones for Ukraine – automakers shifting to weapons? That’s never happened before, right? A Bloomberg op-ed asks ‘Will Golden Dome Work? The World Needs It Anyway’.
- German Chancellor Merz admitted what anyone who understands anything about realpolitik has been saying for some time – that Europe will remain reliant on the US militarily for a long time yet, “whether we like it or not.” Politico just said the same about Big Tech, and energy speaks for itself.
In politics, former Democrat presidential candidate Andrew Yang says he’d like to join a new Musk libertarian American Party that backers claim would be supported by 80% of Americans… while slashing federal programs 80% of Americans want to retain. That’s as Trump, who said he has no desire to repair his rift with Musk, warned there would be “very serious consequences” if he sided with the Democrats - though a third party would do damage enough to Republicans itself, as one source wildly claimed Trump may even ban X for national security reasons.
California Governor Newsom floated withholding federal taxes as Trump threatened to do the same with federal funding for California; and as we heard US Treasury Secretary Bessent had attacked Elon Musk, riots started in LA with the National Guard called in despite the Governor not wanting to use them, or to direct them himself.
Meanwhile, UK “policing is broken”, says The Telegraph, as officers quit in droves, also with an op-ed that the country is “heading for oblivion.’ In the background, former Reform Party Chair Yusuf announced his return two days after quitting to lead a ‘Doge team’ inspired by Musk; and that’s as other media talk of a split in the governing Labour Party between its left and centrist wings.
In short, politics almost everywhere continues to show flux and polarization as a result of being able to propose any workable --or at least quick or painless-- solutions to our multiple conflating problems. And let me underline again that tariffs aren’t either, whatever happens from here.
- In trade, the US and China are to meet in London today, but even Bloomberg says it’ll be harder to strike a deal than before;
- China fast-tracked rare earths to Europe to play it off against the US on another front after Airbus;
- The US Treasury didn’t call China a currency manipulator, but did have a warning from Switzerland and Ireland(!), and called on Japan to raise rates to boost JPY, breaking controversial new ground for policy recommendations;
- The US trade team in India is staying on, which is either a good or bad sign depending on how one looks at it;
- Mexico’s president said she would prop up her steel industry if US tariff talks fail, and that she would “mobilise” the country is the US budget bill brings in a remittance tax, which one Congressman is pushing to increase substantially; and
- A former NZ PM and business leaders called for the country not to side with the US ahead (as if it gets to set the pace of geopolitics and geoeconomics)
In markets, Trump not only called for a 100bps Fed cut(!) at the next meeting, upping the ante there, but he said a new Fed Chair would be named soon – so do we soon get a shadow Fed Chair working alongside Powell, presumably to undermine his authority, and if so who, and will the market then listen to them?
And in energy, India is following Germany (de facto), and China, and the US (de jure) in burning more coal as its energy demand surges far beyond what renewables can provide; as Beijing reportedly worries about what’s happening in China’s over-built EV sector, as both its CPI and PPI prints both stayed negative and even export growth dipped while import growth, of course, shrank.
But apart from all that, not a lot is happening.
