An insanely schizophrenic day...
Weak retail sales (real retail sales down 4 of the last 5 months), and even weaker industrial production (negative YoY amid sizable downward revisions) set the scene early on with US macro surprise index dropping by the most since Feb...
Source: Bloomberg
But, after Value outperformed Growth early on, that was completely reversed after MSFT announced new pricing for its AI offerings...
Source: Bloomberg
That drove value back near its record lows relative to growth...
Source: Bloomberg
For context, MSFT and NVDA have added $175BN market cap today, more than the mkt cap of 462 S&P companies, and more than the value of Nike, Wells Fargo, Walt Disney, Morgan Stanley, Intel, etc
All of which meant that the early relative weakness of Nasdaq reversed hard (right after the European close) as MSFT took off, catching up to Small Caps and The Dow...
A total reverse in the Nasdaq/Russell pairs trade...
Somewhat notably, the 'most shorted' stocks reversed the early squeeze today...
Bear in mind that next Monday is the Nasdaq rebalance and the 'up-weights' are now barely outperforming the 'down-weights' (after initially outperforming by over 4 percent)...
Source: Bloomberg
And then there were the banks with MS initially selling off on its earnings, only to reverse massively, rallying 7% on the day...
Tech & Energy outperformed along with Financials while Utes were the laggard...
Source: Bloomberg
Treasuries were mixed today with the long-end outperforming (30Y -3bps, 2Y +2bps). Bonds were well bid overnight, but gave much of it back during the US day session...
Source: Bloomberg
The yield curve flattened today, erasing the last week's steepening...
Source: Bloomberg
The dollar ended very marginally higher on the day with a bid during the US session trumping the overnight selling...
Source: Bloomberg
Bitcoin leaked lower once again, breaking back below $30k...
Source: Bloomberg
Gold extended its recent rebound, back above $1980 - at six-week highs...
Oil prices rebounded today, holding above the range of the last three months...
Finally, US equity markets have decoupled from the global liquidity proxy for the first time in over a decade...
Source: Bloomberg
Is the market pricing in a massive global re-liquification of asset markets? Or is this just the vinegar strokes of an extended 'bear-market rally'?
