"Let The Games Begin": Nintendo Switch 2 Launches With Retail Frenzy As Goldman Reaffirms Bullish Outlook

Footage on X shows gaming fans nationwide lining up outside Best Buy, GameStop, and other electronics retailers overnight, eager to get their hands on the next-generation Nintendo Switch.

"Let the games begin!" Nintendo of America declared in an early Thursday morning post on its X account.

The lines were long.

Our coverage of the Nintendo Switch 2 has primarily relied on the work of Goldman gaming analyst Minami Munakata, whose recent research has taken a notably bullish stance:

• Nintendo Shares Jump After Goldman Sees Switch 2 Unlocking Dormant Users

• Tariff Turmoil Delays Nintendo Switch 2 Pre-Orders; Will This Derail Goldman's Bull Call On Mario Kart-Maker

• Nintendo Switch 2 Frenzy: "Selling Out" Across US Retailers As Tariffs Won't Impact Pricing

• Goldman Thinks Nintendo's Switch 2 Will Blow Away Estimates, Sees No Supply Constraints

On Wednesday, Munakata published a client note raising her earnings estimates for Nintendo. She is now 15% above Bloomberg consensus for FY3/26 operating profit and sees over 20% upside to her revised target price of ¥14,500 (up from ¥13,600).

Why so bullish? Well, the analyst sees revenue per console to be much higher than the first Switch: 

Similar to the PS4/PS5 transition, we expect per-console revenue for the Switch 2 to be higher than for the Switch, which we reflect in upward revisions to our long-term operating profit forecasts. Our FY3/26 operating profit estimate is 15% above the Bloomberg consensus. As seen during the PS4/PS5 transition, we believe Nintendo can maintain and expand user engagement, allowing it to secure higher margins from the first year of the Switch 2 launch compared with the previous Switch launch.

We raise our 12m target price to ¥14,500 from ¥13,600, reflecting changes to GSe, valuation rollover to FY3/28E, from FY3/27, and a change in our target multiple to reflect recent share price movements (to 26.6X FY3E EV/NOPAT, from 28.3X; this represents a 15% premium to most recent one-month average FY3E EV/NOPAT). We maintain our Buy rating.

Recall in March. She said the release of Switch 2 would "unlock dormant hardware and dormant users" and send "the number of active consoles to continue to renew record highs."

Munakata currently sees robust demand, as she increased shipment volume assumptions for Switch 2 and raised revenue assumptions for Switch 2 software. 

She also focused on a strong software pipeline...

Timeline of upcoming games: 

Retail prices for games.

Munakata is rated "Buy" with a 12-month price target of ¥ 14,500. 

Nintendo shares in Tokyo have been struggling to sustain a price of ¥12,000 for several months. 

Goldman analyst Dani Wojdyla noted that the first Switch 2 sales data should be made available to clients in about a week.