President Trump recently met with Senate GOP leaders, including Sen. John Thune and officials from the Senate Leadership Fund, to discuss key 2026 races, including the high-stakes Texas showdown between Sen. John Cornyn and Attorney General Ken Paxton. According to a source familiar with the meeting, the White House is closely monitoring the primary but has yet to intervene, reportedly waiting to see whether Cornyn can close the substantial polling gap before weighing in.
Paxton, who has positioned himself closely with Trump on issues ranging from border security to tax policy, has consistently led Cornyn by double digits in polling since May. A May poll from the Senate Leadership Fund—an organization historically allied with Cornyn—showed the incumbent trailing Paxton 56 to 40 percent. Even in a hypothetical three-way race with Rep. Wesley Hunt, Paxton maintained a solid lead. A more recent UpOne Insights survey, released several weeks later, found Paxton up 22 points, with only 27 percent of respondents saying Cornyn deserves another term.
The numbers reflect deep frustration among Republican primary voters with Cornyn’s record. Many conservatives took issue with his role in shaping 2022 gun legislation praised by President Biden, as well as his behind-the-scenes involvement in a failed immigration package that would have expanded legal pathways during the height of the border crisis. While Cornyn ultimately voted against that proposal after its inevitable defeat became clear, critics saw it as emblematic of his long-standing connection with Mitch McConnell and the Washington establishment.
Paxton has used those contrasts to his advantage, pitching himself as a fighter for Texas values rather than the D.C. status quo. In a June radio interview, Paxton said Cornyn’s decades in Washington have come at the expense of his Texas constituents. “When you go 23 years not paying attention to your voters and following McConnell’s lead instead, people notice,” he remarked.
The attorney general has also survived a series of political and legal attacks that may have bolstered his image among grassroots conservatives. He was impeached by the Texas House last year and previously indicted shortly after taking office, but emerged from each challenge largely unscathed. Paxton attributes those efforts to an alliance between Democrats and moderate Republicans seeking to oust him in favor of someone more aligned with party leadership.
The Senate race is escalating amid new developments in Paxton’s personal life. On Monday, his wife, Texas State Sen. Angela Paxton, announced she had filed for divorce after 38 years of marriage, citing “biblical grounds.” In a public statement, she wrote that she had “earnestly pursued reconciliation,” but that “in light of recent discoveries,” she no longer believed remaining in the marriage “honors God” or is loving “to myself, my children, or Ken.” She added, “I move forward with complete confidence that God is always working everything together for the good of those who love Him and who are called according to His purpose.”
Ken Paxton also issued a statement, saying, “After facing the pressures of countless political attacks and public scrutiny, Angela and I have decided to start a new chapter in our lives.” He praised their family and asked for “prayers and privacy at this time.”
Whether or how the latest developments in Paxton’s personal life will impact the race is uncertain, but with the drama rising and the attacks from each candidate and their allies growing increasingly personal, all eyes in Texas and Washington will be watching.
