Thunderbolts*, the latest from the Disney Grooming Syndicate’s Marvel division, opened to a weak $76 million over the three-day weekend.
Out of 34 Marvel Cinematic Universe titles, Thunderbolts* ranks 28th for opening weekends, coming in behind Captain America Brave New World ($89 million), Guardians of the Galaxy ($94 million), and even the 17-year-old- Iron Man ($102 million). Even Black Widow, which was released in the heart of the pandemic and simultaneously on Disney + opened to $80 million.
The entertainment media is looking to spin this as pretty good news, primarily because Thunderbolts* earned within what it had been projected to earn. However, that’s not entirely true. Boxoffice Pro saw an $80 to $90 million opening.
Nevertheless, this is a Marvel movie launching without any competition during the first weekend of May, which is now seen as the opening weekend of the summer box office.
Globally, the news was not much better. Whereas the box office disappointment Captain America: Brave New World $192 million worldwide on its opening weekend, Thunderbolts* crapped out to just $162 million.
According to the entertainment media, the best news for Thunderbolts* going into next weekend is that 1) there’s no real competition opening, 2) the reviews have been solid, and 3) it earned an A- Cinemascore.
Well, I would argue that solid reviews did not lift the opening weekend above projections, so why would anyone believe those same reviews would lift the second weekend? As far as the A Cinemascore, that could deliver better word of mouth and repeat business, but that same word of mouth and A Cinemascore did not lift the movie in any noticeable way between Friday and Sunday.
The other thing about that 88 percent fresh rating at Rotten Tomatoes is that those reviews are far from enthusiastic. The review might have edged into fresh, but most still fall under “not as bad as expected.”
I thought Thunderbolts* stunk on ice.
With Captain America: Brave New World flopping out with a pathetic global take of just $415 million, which didn’t cover its reported production and promotion costs, the groomers at Disney desperately need Thunderbolts* to overperform in the coming. Above all, the MCU needs Fantastic 4: First Steps to right the sinking ship in July.
The reported promotion and production costs for Thunderbolts* stands at close to $300 million, which means it will have to clear $500 million to $550 million globally just to break even (studios collect about half of box office grosses). Right now, that seems highly unlikely.
With four months behind us in 2025, the box office, despite plenty of product, has only delivered two legitimate hits: A Minecraft Movie and Sinners. I haven’t and will never see Minecraft, but Sinners deserves all the success it can hold onto. A great movie and a great movie experience that is a legitimate word-of-mouth phenomenon.
John Nolte’s first and last novel, Borrowed Time, is winning five-star raves from everyday readers. You can read an excerpt here and an in-depth review here. Also available in hardcover and on Kindle and Audiobook.
