- US stocks endured a choppy session on Friday but ultimately closed in the green and at session highs as they saw a notable bid into settlement amongst month-end and despite the initial sell-off seen post-US open, while US January PCE was the key scheduled data but turned out to be a damp squib and printed in line with expectations. Nonetheless, the session highlight came after a fiery and argumentative meeting between US President Trump and Ukrainian President Zelensky at the Oval Office where Trump told Zelensky "You are gambling with World War III" and "You either make a deal or we are out". Following the meeting, Trump posted on Truth that Zelensky disrespected the US and that he could come back when ready for peace, while the joint presser was cancelled with the deal not signed and leaders throughout Europe announced their solidarity with Ukraine.
- Ukrainian President Zelensky commented on Sunday that they are ready to sign the minerals deal which he believes the US would be ready to sign as well, while he believes the relationship with the US will continue.
- US President Trump commented that the executive order on digital assets directed a strategic reserve that included XRP, Sol and ADA. Trump also stated that BTC and ETH, as other valuable cryptocurrencies, will be at the heart of the reserve, as well as commented that he loves Bitcoin and Ethereum.
- Looking ahead, highlights include Australian MI Inflation Gauge, Company Profits & Business Inventories, Regional PMIs, Chinese Caixin Manufacturing PMI, Japanese Construction Orders, South Korean Holiday Closure.
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LOOKING AHEAD
- Highlights include Australian MI Inflation Gauge, Company Profits & Business Inventories, Regional PMIs, Chinese Caixin Manufacturing PMI, Japanese Construction Orders, South Korean Holiday Closure.
- Click for the Newsquawk Week Ahead.
US TRADE
- US stocks endured a choppy session on Friday but ultimately closed in the green and at session highs as they saw a notable bid into settlement amongst month-end and despite the initial sell-off seen post-US open, while US January PCE was the key scheduled data but turned out to be a damp squib and printed in line with expectations. Nonetheless, the session highlight came after a fiery and argumentative meeting between US President Trump and Ukrainian President Zelensky at the Oval Office where Trump told Zelensky "You are gambling with World War III" and "You either make a deal or we are out". Following the meeting, Trump posted on Truth that Zelensky disrespected the US and that he could come back when ready for peace, while the joint presser was cancelled with the deal not signed and leaders throughout Europe announced their solidarity with Ukraine.
- SPX +1.59% at 5,955, NDX +1.62% at 20,884, DJI +1.39% at 43,841, RUT +1.09% at 2,163.
- Click here for a detailed summary.
TARIFFS/TRADE
- US Commerce Secretary Lutnick said Mexico and Canada have done a reasonable job on the border and there will be tariffs on Canada and Mexico on Tuesday but President Trump will decide at what levels. Lutnick added that China tariffs are set unless they end fentanyl trafficking into the US.
- White House official announced on Saturday evening that President Trump ordered to bolster the supply of forest resources and directed the Commerce Secretary to investigate harm to US National Security from imported lumber, while any tariffs resulting from the lumber investigation would be added to other tariffs, including fentanyl-related tariffs on Canada, Mexico and China. Furthermore, the official said China, Canada and Mexico could take quick action to avert fentanyl-related tariffs.
NOTABLE HEADLINES
- Fed's Goolsbee (2025 voter) said on Friday that inflation data is still higher than they would like but still appears on a path back to 2% inflation, while he added everything keeps them up at night and they should start working through scenarios of the Trump economic agenda although don't have enough clarity to forecast off the Trump agenda yet.
- US Treasury Secretary Bessent said will appoint an affordability czar to address high prices, according to CBS News.
- US House Speaker Johnson said he wants a clean Continuing Resolution for the fiscal year through September, according to Punchbowl.
FX
- SNB Chairman Schlegel said the SNB will only reintroduce negative interest rates if necessary.
COMMODITIES
- Guyana’s President Ali said a Venezuelan armed patrol ship entered Guyanese waters on Saturday morning and threatened oil production ships, claiming they were in Venezuelan waters, according to News Source Guyana.
- Canada is to extend mineral exploration tax credit for two more years, according to the Natural Resources Minister.
- Russian President Putin’s ally Matthias Warning pushes a deal to restart the Nord Stream 2 with US backing, according to FT.
CRYPTO
- US President Trump is to host the first White House cryptocurrency summit on March 7th. Trump also commented that the executive order on digital assets directed a strategic reserve that included XRP, Sol and ADA. Trump also stated that BTC and ETH, as other valuable cryptocurrencies, will be at the heart of the reserve, as well as commented that he loves Bitcoin and Ethereum.
GEOPOLITICAL
MIDDLE EAST
- Israel conducted strikes on Gaza on Sunday which killed four Palestinians, according to Reuters citing Gaza health officials. Furthermore, the Israeli military said it eliminated suspects who were planting an explosive device in Gaza.
- Israeli PM’s office said they will adopt the outline of US envoy Witkoff for a temporary ceasefire for the Ramadan and Passover holidays.
- Israel announced that it had ceased the entry of humanitarian aid into Gaza. It was separately reported that Israel’s Foreign Minister Saar said Hamas rejected the framework for a ceasefire and this is why were not able to move forward for the time being, while he added that the commitment for goods to enter was only for the first phase which has lapsed and the US understands Israel’s stance on the decision to halt Gaza aid. Saar also said that Israel is ready for the second phase of the agreement but “not for free”.
- Hamas said Israeli PM Netanyahu’s decision to halt humanitarian aid is cheap blackmail and a coup on the agreement while it urged Gaza ceasefire mediators to compel Israel to end punitive measures against Gaza. Furthermore, a Hamas official said the group will not agree to extend the first phase of the ceasefire deal and that the hostage release will only occur under the agreed phased deal, according to Reuters.
- Egypt’s Foreign Minister said Egypt will continue intensive efforts to start negotiations on the second phase of a Gaza ceasefire deal and the Gaza reconstruction plan has been completed which will be presented at the emergency Arab summit on Tuesday for approval, while foreign ministers of the Organisation of Islamic Cooperation will meet in Saudi Arabia after the emergency summit. Furthermore, Egypt’s Foreign Minister said using aid as a weapon of collective punishment and starvation in Gaza cannot be accepted or permitted.
RUSSIA-UKRAINE
- Ukrainian President Zelensky said late on Friday that he wants peace but will require security guarantees to prevent Russia from attacking again, while he is very thankful to US President Trump and said he respects him and the American people but refuses to apologise and believes the relationship with Trump can be repared. Furthermore, Ukrainian President Zelensky commented on Sunday that they are ready to sign the minerals deal which he believes the US would be ready to sign as well, while he believes the relationship with the US will continue.
- Ukrainian President Zelensky met with UK PM Starmer on Saturday, while Ukraine and the UK signed an agreement that provides an additional GBP 2.6bln in loans towards Ukraine’s defence. It was separately reported that Zelensky said he met with Italian PM Meloni to discuss a common plan to end the war.
- UK PM Starmer said Europe needs a security guarantee from the US and that the UK, France and maybe others will work with Ukraine on a plan to stop the fighting which they will then discuss with the US and thinks it is a step in the right direction. Starmer said he would not trust Russian President Putin’s word and he does not think Ukrainian President Zelensky has done anything wrong, while he is clear that US President Trump does want lasting peace and added that there is a moment of real fragility in Europe.
- UK PM Starmer said on Sunday following the Ukraine summit that a new deal will allow Ukraine to use GBP 1.6bln of export finance and this will help protect Ukraine’s critical infrastructure, while he added that they agreed to keep military aid flowing to Ukraine and the economic pressure on Russia. Starmer said in the event of peace, they will boost Ukraine’s defence capabilities and the UK is willing to have planes in the air regarding peacekeeping troops.
- US National Security Adviser Waltz said it was not clear Ukrainian President Zelensky was ready to negotiate in good faith at the White House and it is absolutely false that the Oval Office meeting was some kind of ambush. Waltz said Zelensky needs to make clear he is ready for peace and the US needs a Ukraine leader who can deal with Washington and Russia and end the war, while he added the US seeks a permanent end to the Ukraine war with European-led security guarantees, according to CNN.
- US Treasury Secretary Bessent said it is impossible to get an economic deal without a peace deal in Ukraine and the plan is for the EU to provide security guarantees for Ukraine not NATO.
- Ukraine’s Foreign Ministry condemned the breach of Ukraine’s territorial sovereignty by IAEA employees who visited the Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant via occupied territory which it said was the result of Russian blackmail.
- Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov said US President Trump is a pragmatist with the slogan common sense and the discussion in Europe about peacekeepers for Ukraine is arrogant. Lavrov said that the US bluntly said it wants to end the conflict in Ukraine but Europe demands the war to continue, while he added the West cannot explain what will happen to the territory of Ukraine and to the Russian language if European peacekeepers are deployed.
- Russia’s Medvedev said Russia is prepared to show flexibility in talks on Ukraine but only in accordance with the Russian constitution and realities on the ground, while he added Russia is ready to discuss a settlement but only with those who are ready to communicate.
- Russian Defence Ministry said Russian forces captured two new villages in eastern Ukraine, while Russian forces also struck gas processing plants in Ukraine, according to IFAX.
- Polish PM Tusk said he supports Italian PM Meloni’s proposal to organise a US-Europe summit, while he said he sees no other power in the world than the US that can stop Russian aggression. Tusk separately commented that Ukraine summit participants declared they are ready to ramp up defence spending.
- Germany reportedly discussed setting up special funds for defence and infrastructure, according to sources. It was separately reported that German Chancellor Scholz said they need to financially and militarily support Ukraine. Scholz also said they need a strong army in Ukraine in the future when the war is over and that Thursday’s summit will be about how to do more for their own defences.
- EU’s von der Leyen said that they urgently need to rearm Europe and need to step up massively and have a surge in defence, while she added member states need more fiscal space to do a surge in defence and that they want the US to know that they are ready to defend democracy.
- Canadian PM Trudeau said everything is on the table when asked if he would contribute to a peacekeeping force in Ukraine and said nothing is more important to Canadians right now than standing up for their sovereignty, as well as noted regarding the Trump-Zelensky meeting that he stands with Zelensky.
ASIA-PAC
NOTABLE HEADLINES
- PBoC and financial regulators held a symposium on financial support of private enterprises and five private enterprises attended the symposium including Geely Holding and SenseTime.
- Macau February Casino rev rose 6.8% Y/Y to MOP 19.7bln vs expected 0.8% increase.
- Honor is to invest USD 10bln in AI devices over the next five years.
DATA RECAP
- Chinese Manufacturing PMI (Feb) 50.2 vs Exp. 49.9 (Prev. 49.1)
- Chinese Non-Manufacturing PMI (Feb) 50.4 vs Exp. 50.3 (Prev. 50.2)
- Chinese Composite PMI (Feb) 51.1 (Prev. 50.1)
EU/UK
NOTABLE HEADLINES
- Austrian liberal NEOS party members voted in favour of a coalition agreement which paves the way for a three-party government to take office.
- S&P affirmed France at AA-; Outlook revised to Negative from Stable and upgraded Portugal to A; Outlook Positive.
