Tropical Storm Bret Could Become Hurricane, Threatening Eastern Caribbean

One of the two tropical waves traversing the Atlantic Ocean has formed into Tropical Storm Bret, with the National Hurricane Center in Miami, Florida, forecasting it to strengthen into a hurricane as it approaches the Caribbean Sea later this week. 

In a Tuesday morning update, NHC said that TS Bret could hit islands in the Lesser Antilles by Thursday or Friday, putting them at "risk of flooding from heavy rainfall, strong winds, and dangerous storm surge and waves." The Lesser Antilles are multiple island nations and territories, including the US Virgin Islands, Antigua and Barbuda, Aruba, and Trinidad and Tobago.

TS Bret has maximum sustained winds of 40 mph. It "could become a hurricane in a couple of days," NHC said. If that happens, it would be the first hurricane of the Atlantic hurricane season and the second named storm. 

"Given the larger-than-usual uncertainty in the track forecast, it is too early to specify the location and magnitude of where these hazards could occur. However, everyone in the Lesser Antilles, Puerto Rico, and the Virgin Islands should closely monitor updates to the forecast for Bret and have their hurricane plan in place," NHC said. 

The second system, AL93, is a tropical wave "several hundred miles" from the Cabo Verde Islands. NHC gives it 70% odds of cyclone formation over the next two days. 

A big question is if warm Atlantic waters can generate strong enough storms to overcome wind shear produced by El Niño. 

Wind shear tends to tear apart storms.