Another week for the history books, only instead of two months ago when there was sheer panic and everything was in freefall, last week was the mirror image, with the S&P having its first record close on Friday since February (6,173).
It is almost as if there is nothing to see here: the first half of 2025 is nearing a wrap and judging strictly by the closing metrics, it’s as if nothing was out of the ordinary. The S&P logged another record close, HY spreads and yields hovered near their respective three- and six-month lows, 39% of the loan market is bid 100+, and so on.
Yet, zooming in – geopolitical conflicts, tariff uncertainties, and dispersion are still very present under the surface. The S&P’s record close was the first since February and marked an 89 trading day stretch where the index rocketed 24% – the fastest recovery ever back to a closing high after a decline of at least 14%.
