Less than three months after it seemed that nothing could lift stocks again, and a recession - according to a vast majority of "experts" was just around the corner - the stock market is at new all time highs, and it seems that nothing can stop the latest market meltup. There's a reason for that. As Michael Hartnett writes in his latest Flow Show note (available to pro subs) we've seen "DeepSeek, DOGE, NATO, Liberation Day, Iran, Big Beautiful Bill… lots and lots of “shocks” but stocks and bonds didn’t care as central banks cut rates aggressively." The result: GLD +26.7%, ACWX +17.8%, XBT +14.2%, QQQ +7.1%, SPY +5.0%, TLT +2.5%... and the most bullish price event of the first half, according to the BofA strategist, was the failure of the 30-year Treasury yield to break above 5%.
To be sure, there are concerns, the first of which is the complete lack of breath: yes, the S&P 500 may be at new highs, and on cusp of the 7th great breakout since 1990, but it is with the smallest “breakout stock” participation ever: just 22 S&P stocks are currently at all-time highs vs 67 in Jan'24 breakout, 54 in Aug'20, 97 in Mar'13, 82 in May'07, 66 in Nov'98, 51 in Feb'91.
